Prop lines, translated to fantasy
The sportsbooks publish the sharpest forecast in football — every prop line is a number
somebody loses money on if it's wrong. Here is this week's board as fair (de-vigged) consensus
across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and ESPN BET, converted into fantasy points and put
next to our projection, with every real divergence flagged.
Lines shown for information — we are not a sportsbook and take no bets.
How to read this. A prop line is the market's median for
that stat; because fantasy scoring is linear, summing scoring × line gives the market's fantasy expectation.
Touchdown expectations are solved from the fair odds (a 1.5-TD line at plus-money is not 1.5 TDs). "Coach
higher / Vegas higher" flags divergences of 2+ fantasy points between our projection and the market's —
that's where a start/sit decision is actually being made. Rows marked † are missing their touchdown
props (books post them closer to game day) — those market numbers are yards-only, so no verdict is
given until the TD line exists. Receptions fill in the same way. Rebuilt nightly from live lines. Tap any player for their full card.