NYJ — Week 9 at KC, who allow the 31st-most points to WRs — recently Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up 22.3 on them (W7), Jaylen Waddle put up 11.9 on them (W8).
27.2 PPR points against LV on 7/9 rec, 142 yd, 1 TD — beat his 5.6 projection by 21.6. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Adonai Mitchell projects 8.4 PPR points in week 9 at KC — the 31st-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 16.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs KC: 228.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.55/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 31st-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 47.5 receiving yards · 27% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 4 games): 64% offensive snaps · 6.8 targets/game, 21.4% target share · 40.6% air-yard share (aDOT 17.6) · 4 catches for 66.3 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 50.6% offensive snaps, 4.6 targets/game, 15.3% target share, 30.3% air-yard share (aDOT 14.9), 2.1 catches for 28.3 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.8 · median 5.1 · ceiling 15.3 — 25% chance of 10+, 11% of 15+, 5% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Adonai Mitchell in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 31st · tough |
| W10 | vs BUF | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3rd · soft |
| W11 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 22 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 18th |
| W12 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 29 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | vs DEN | Sun, Dec 13 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 27th · tough |
| W15 | @ ARI | Sun, Dec 20 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 6th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | LV | 7/9 rec, 142 yd, 1 TD | 20.2 | 23.7 | 27.2 |
| W2 | GB | 6/12 rec, 63 yd | 6.3 | 9.3 | 12.3 |
| W1 | TEN | 3/3 rec, 60 yd | 6.0 | 7.5 | 9.0 |