SEA — Week 9 vs ARI, who allow the 8th-most points to TEs — recently Evan Engram put up 0.2 on them (W7), James Mitchell put up 6 on them (W8).
4.3 PPR points against CHI on 2/5 rec, 23 yd — missed his 8.4 projection by 4.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
AJ Barner projects 7.9 PPR points in week 9 vs ARI — the 8th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 5.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs ARI: 237.6 passing yards a game allowed (8.27/attempt) · 2.3 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how ARI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 25.5 receiving yards · 26% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 89% offensive snaps · 4.3 targets/game, 13.5% target share · 4.1% air-yard share (aDOT 2.1) · 2.6 catches for 25.4 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 77.3% offensive snaps, 4 targets/game, 13.8% target share, 7.7% air-yard share (aDOT 4.4), 3.1 catches for 30.5 yards/game, 7 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.4 · median 5.2 · ceiling 13.2 — 22% chance of 10+, 7% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare AJ Barner in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs ARI | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 8th · soft |
| W10 | @ LV | Sun, Nov 15 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 25th · tough |
| W13 | vs DAL | Mon, Dec 7 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 19th |
| W14 | vs NYG | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 22nd |
| W15 | @ PHI | Sat, Dec 19 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 29th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | CHI | 2/5 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.3 |
| W7 | KC | 3 car, 4 yd · 4/5 rec, 42 yd | 4.6 | 6.6 | 8.6 |
| W6 | DEN | 3/4 rec, 16 yd | 1.6 | 3.1 | 4.6 |
| W5 | SF | 3/5 rec, 20 yd | 2.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |
| W4 | LAC | 1/3 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| W3 | WAS | 5/9 rec, 69 yd | 6.9 | 9.4 | 11.9 |
| W2 | ARI | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 1/1 rec, 8 yd | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| W1 | NE | 2/2 rec, 13 yd | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 |