SEA — Week 2 at ARI, who allow the 13th-most points to TEs — recently David Njoku put up 5.8 on them (W1).
3.3 PPR points against NE on 2/2 rec, 13 yd — missed his 9.3 projection by 6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
AJ Barner projects 8.6 PPR points in week 2 at ARI — the 13th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 3.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs ARI: 209 passing yards a game allowed (7.74/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 13th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how ARI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 88% offensive snaps · 1.5 targets/game, 6.1% target share · 1.4% air-yard share (aDOT 2.3) · 1.5 catches for 10.5 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 77.3% offensive snaps, 4 targets/game, 13.8% target share, 7.7% air-yard share (aDOT 4.4), 3.1 catches for 30.5 yards/game, 7 TD. (2025) TD luck: 7 scored vs 5.9 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.6 · median 5.4 · ceiling 14.1 — 23% chance of 10+, 10% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare AJ Barner in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ ARI | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 13th |
| W3 | @ WAS | Sun, Sep 27 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 3rd · soft |
| W4 | vs LAC | Sun, Oct 4 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5th · soft |
| W5 | vs SF | Sun, Oct 11 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 31st · tough |
| W6 | @ DEN | Thu, Oct 15 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 16th |
| W7 | vs KC | Sun, Oct 25 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NE | 2/2 rec, 13 yd | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 |