NE · IR — Ankle — Week 8 at MIA, who allow the 22nd-most points to WRs — recently Jack Bech put up 8.3 on them (W1).
5.6 PPR points against SEA on 3/4 rec, 26 yd — missed his 16.8 projection by 11.2. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
A.J. Brown projects 16.4 PPR points in week 8 at MIA — the 22nd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 5.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIA: 160 passing yards a game allowed (5.33/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 2 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 22nd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 1 game): 44% offensive snaps · 4 targets/game, 12.9% target share · 8.6% air-yard share (aDOT 4.8) · 3 catches for 26 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 90.7% offensive snaps, 8.1 targets/game, 28.7% target share, 35.5% air-yard share (aDOT 11.8), 5.2 catches for 66.9 yards/game, 7 TD. (2025) TD luck: 7 scored vs 5.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare A.J. Brown in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 1 | 11.1 | 13.7 | 16.4 | 22nd |
| W9 | vs GB | Sun, Nov 8 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 12th |
| W10 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 15 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 15.4 | 3rd · soft |
| W12 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 29 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 14.2 | 19th |
| W13 | vs BUF | Sun, Dec 6 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 14.4 | 8th · soft |
| W14 | vs MIN | Thu, Dec 10 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 14.8 | 1st · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | SEA | 3/4 rec, 26 yd | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.6 |