NE · Questionable — Ankle — Week 9 vs GB, who allow the 15th-most points to WRs — recently Jameson Williams put up 21.1 on them (W7), Jalen Coker put up 7.6 on them (W8).
A.J. Brown projects 13.3 PPR points in week 9 vs GB — the 15th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 6.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs GB: 220.9 passing yards a game allowed (6.22/attempt) · 1.3 TDs/gm through the air · 1.3 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 15th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how GB defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 38% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 3 games): 70.3% offensive snaps · 6.7 targets/game, 22.1% target share · 33.2% air-yard share (aDOT 13.4) · 3 catches for 33.7 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 90.7% offensive snaps, 8.1 targets/game, 28.7% target share, 35.5% air-yard share (aDOT 11.8), 5.2 catches for 66.9 yards/game, 7 TD. (2025) TD luck: 7 scored vs 5.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.9 · median 9.7 · ceiling 20.9 — 49% chance of 10+, 29% of 15+, 13% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare A.J. Brown in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs GB | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 15th |
| W10 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 15 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 15.4 | 7th · soft |
| W12 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 29 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 14.4 | 18th |
| W13 | vs BUF | Sun, Dec 6 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 13.7 | 3rd · soft |
| W14 | vs MIN | Thu, Dec 10 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 30th · tough |
| W15 | @ KC | Mon, Dec 21 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 13.4 | 31st · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | CHI | 3/6 rec, 48 yd | 4.8 | 6.3 | 7.8 |
| W6 | NYJ | 3/10 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| W1 | SEA | 3/4 rec, 26 yd | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.6 |