AJ Dillon RB

CAR — Week 4 vs DET, who allow the 19th-most points to RBs — recently James Cook put up 19.9 on them (W2), Breece Hall put up 5.5 on them (W3).

Week 3 recap: AJ Dillon

2.4 PPR points against CLE on 4 car, 16 yd · 1/1 rec, -2 yd. The week 4 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.

Should you start AJ Dillon this week?

AJ Dillon projects 3.9 PPR points in week 4 vs DET — the 19th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 1.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.

The week 4 angle vs DET: 117.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.4 a carry · 1.3 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 19th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DET defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.

Usage & TD luck (2026 · 3 games): 10.7% offensive snaps · 4 carries/game (17.9% of team carries) · 17.3% of the backfield's touches · 0.3 targets/game, 0.8% target share · 13.7 rushing and -0.7 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (6 games): 11.9% offensive snaps, 2 carries/game (7.8% of team carries), 10.9% of the backfield's touches, 0.5 targets/game, 1.5% target share, 10 rushing and 3.5 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. (2025) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.3 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.

Week 4 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.4 · median 2.6 · ceiling 8.7 — 6% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.

Compare AJ Dillon in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer

Upcoming schedule & projections

The matchup

Game log