IND · Out — Heel — Week 2 at KC, who allow the 31st-most points to WRs — recently Pat Bryant put up 4.2 on them (W1).
10.1 PPR points against BAL on 4/6 rec, 61 yd — right on his 8.8 projection (+1.3). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Alec Pierce projects 11.6 PPR points in week 2 at KC — the 31st-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 10.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs KC: 131 passing yards a game allowed (4.68/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 31st-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 59% offensive snaps · 3.5 targets/game, 12% target share · 28.7% air-yard share (aDOT 16.1) · 2.5 catches for 36 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 85.9% offensive snaps, 5.6 targets/game, 17.6% target share, 40.6% air-yard share (aDOT 19), 3.1 catches for 66.9 yards/game, 6 TD. (2025) TD luck: 6 scored vs 5.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.9 · median 8.6 · ceiling 18.8 — 44% chance of 10+, 21% of 15+, 8% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Alec Pierce in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ KC | Sun, Sep 20 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 31st · tough |
| W3 | vs HOU | Sun, Sep 27 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 5th · soft |
| W4 | @ WAS | Sun, Oct 4 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 15th |
| W5 | @ PIT | Sun, Oct 11 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 32nd · tough |
| W6 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 18 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 17th |
| W7 | @ MIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 1st · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL | 4/6 rec, 61 yd | 6.1 | 8.1 | 10.1 |