NO — Week 2 at BAL, who allow the 10th-most points to RBs — recently Jonathan Taylor put up 22.1 on them (W1).
Alvin Kamara projects 5.3 PPR points in week 2 at BAL — the 10th-ranked matchup for RBs. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs BAL: 102 rushing yards a game allowed at 5.1 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 1 game): 9 carries/game (33.3% of team carries) · 57.7% of the backfield's touches · 6 targets/game, 18.8% target share · 15 rushing and 7 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (11 games): 63.7% offensive snaps, 11.9 carries/game (47.3% of team carries), 67.2% of the backfield's touches, 3.5 targets/game, 11.7% target share, 42.8 rushing and 16.9 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. (2025) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.5 · median 3.2 · ceiling 9.8 — 9% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Alvin Kamara in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BAL | Sun, Sep 20 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 10th |
| W3 | vs LV | Sun, Sep 27 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 31st · tough |
| W4 | vs ATL | Mon, Oct 5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 29th · tough |
| W5 | vs MIN | Sun, Oct 11 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 30th · tough |
| W6 | @ NYG | Sun, Oct 18 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 14th |
| W7 | vs PIT | Sun, Oct 25 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 8th · soft |