NO · Questionable — Back — Week 9 vs CLE, who allow the 16th-most points to RBs — recently Tony Pollard put up 33.5 on them (W7), Jaylen Warren put up 20.3 on them (W8).
Alvin Kamara projects 9.4 PPR points in week 9 vs CLE — the 16th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 10.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CLE: 126.5 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.69 a carry · 0.9 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 16th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CLE defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 14.5 receiving yards · 21% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 34.7% offensive snaps · 6.8 carries/game (28.1% of team carries) · 39.3% of the backfield's touches · 4.5 targets/game, 12.7% target share · 20.8 rushing and 22.2 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (11 games): 63.7% offensive snaps, 11.9 carries/game (47.3% of team carries), 67.2% of the backfield's touches, 3.5 targets/game, 11.7% target share, 42.8 rushing and 16.9 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 1.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3 · median 7.1 · ceiling 15 — 28% chance of 10+, 11% of 15+, 5% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Alvin Kamara in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs CLE | Sun, Nov 8 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 16th |
| W10 | vs CAR | Sun, Nov 15 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2nd · soft |
| W11 | @ CHI | Sun, Nov 22 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 30th · tough |
| W12 | @ CIN | Sun, Nov 29 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 21st |
| W13 | vs GB | Sun, Dec 6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 8th · soft |
| W14 | @ CAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2nd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | PIT | 6 car, 5 yd · 7/7 rec, 57 yd | 6.2 | 9.7 | 13.2 |
| W6 | NYG | 7 car, 34 yd · 2/4 rec, 35 yd, 1 TD | 12.9 | 13.9 | 14.9 |
| W5 | MIN | 3 car, 12 yd · 2/2 rec, -6 yd | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| W4 | ATL | 7 car, 23 yd, 2 TD · 5/7 rec, 35 yd | 17.8 | 20.3 | 22.8 |
| W3 | LV | 9 car, 36 yd · 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| W2 | BAL | 9 car, 15 yd · 5/6 rec, 7 yd | 2.2 | 4.7 | 7.2 |