JAX — Week 1 vs CLE, who allow the 11th-most points to RBs — recently Jaylen Warren put up 6.4 on them (W17), Chase Brown put up 15 on them (W18).
Ameer Abdullah projects 0.3 PPR points in week 1 vs CLE — the 11th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 1.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs CLE: 116.4 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.19 a carry · 0.8 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 11th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CLE defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 9% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 10.5% offensive snaps · 1.1 carries/game · 4.3% target share. TD luck: 1 scored vs 1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Ameer Abdullah in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs CLE | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 11th |
| W2 | @ DEN | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 29th · tough |
| W3 | vs NE | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 30th · tough |
| W4 | @ CIN | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2nd · soft |
| W5 | vs PHI | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 10th |
| W6 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | HOU | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/2 rec, 24 yd | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| W17 | JAX | 1/1 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W16 | SF | 1/1 rec, 4 yd · 1 fum | -1.6 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| W15 | SEA | 4 car, 15 yd · 5/5 rec, 32 yd | 4.7 | 7.2 | 9.7 |
| W14 | JAX | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/2 rec, 5 yd | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| W10 | ATL | 1/1 rec, 8 yd | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| W9 | PIT | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/1 rec, 2 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| W8 | TEN | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/1 rec, 3 yd | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| W7 | LAC | 2 car, 19 yd · 1/1 rec, 8 yd | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| W6 | ARI | 1 car, 7 yd · 1/1 rec, 9 yd | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| W5 | LV | 2 car, 6 yd, 1 TD | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |