DET — Week 2 at BUF, who allow the 8th-most points to WRs — recently Nico Collins put up 14.2 on them (W1).
28.7 PPR points against NO on 10/14 rec, 67 yd, 2 TD — beat his 19.8 projection by 8.9. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Amon-Ra St. Brown projects 17.4 PPR points in week 2 at BUF — the 8th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 28.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs BUF: 274 passing yards a game allowed (7.21/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 92.5% offensive snaps · 13.5 targets/game, 35.1% target share · 38.9% air-yard share (aDOT 8.1) · 9.5 catches for 104.5 yards/game, 4 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 85.2% offensive snaps, 10.1 targets/game, 31.7% target share, 38.7% air-yard share (aDOT 8.1), 6.9 catches for 82.4 yards/game, 11 TD. (2025) TD luck: 11 scored vs 11.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6 · median 13.8 · ceiling 23.6 — 68% chance of 10+, 40% of 15+, 18% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Amon-Ra St. Brown in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BUF | Thu, Sep 17 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 17.4 | 8th · soft |
| W3 | vs NYJ | Sun, Sep 27 | 13.1 | 16.6 | 20.0 | 23rd |
| W4 | @ CAR | Sun, Oct 4 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 18.8 | 10th |
| W5 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 11 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 19.0 | 16th |
| W7 | vs GB | Sun, Oct 25 | 12.3 | 15.8 | 19.4 | 12th |
| W8 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 1 | 11.7 | 14.9 | 18.2 | 1st · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NO | 10/14 rec, 67 yd, 2 TD | 18.7 | 23.7 | 28.7 |