NYJ — Week 1 at TEN, who allow the 4th-most points to WRs — recently Chris Olave put up 17.9 on them (W17), Parker Washington put up 14.7 on them (W18).
Arian Smith projects 0.3 PPR points in week 1 at TEN — the 4th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 0.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs TEN: 248.3 passing yards a game allowed (8.23/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how TEN defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 4% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 38.3% offensive snaps · 4.5% target share · 9.1% air-yard share (aDOT 13.5). TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Arian Smith in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ TEN | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 4th · soft |
| W2 | vs GB | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 14th |
| W3 | @ DET | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3rd · soft |
| W4 | @ CHI | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2nd · soft |
| W5 | vs CLE | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 22nd |
| W6 | @ NE | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | BUF | 1 car, 2 yd · 0/2 rec, 0 yd | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| W17 | NE | 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| W12 | BAL | 1 car, 8 yd | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| W10 | CLE | 1 car, 13 yd | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| W8 | CIN | 1/1 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| W5 | DAL | 1/1 rec, 14 yd | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| W3 | TB | 2/2 rec, 2 yd | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| W2 | BUF | 1 car, -10 yd · 1/2 rec, 8 yd | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 |