LV — Week 9 at SF, who allow the 20th-most points to RBs — recently Rachaad White put up 11.7 on them (W6), Bijan Robinson put up 12.2 on them (W7).
10.3 PPR points against NYJ on 2 car, 9 yd · 3/4 rec, 64 yd — missed his 15.9 projection by 5.6. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Ashton Jeanty projects 12.2 PPR points in week 9 at SF — the 20th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 15.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs SF: 89 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.5 a carry · 0.4 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 20th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how SF defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 29.5 rushing yards · 39.5 receiving yards · 33% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 66.1% offensive snaps · 13.5 carries/game (52.2% of team carries) · 64.2% of the backfield's touches · 6 targets/game, 17.3% target share · 42.1 rushing and 47 receiving yards/game, 4 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 77.9% offensive snaps, 15.6 carries/game (72.1% of team carries), 84.3% of the backfield's touches, 4.3 targets/game, 14.8% target share, 57.4 rushing and 20.4 receiving yards/game, 10 TD. (2026) TD luck: 4 scored vs 6.3 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.5 · median 8.9 · ceiling 19.3 — 43% chance of 10+, 22% of 15+, 9% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Ashton Jeanty in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ SF | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 20th |
| W10 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 15 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 18th |
| W11 | @ DEN | Sun, Nov 22 | 12.8 | 14.8 | 16.7 | 11th |
| W12 | @ CLE | Sun, Nov 29 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 16.8 | 16th |
| W14 | vs LAC | Sun, Dec 13 | 13.6 | 15.7 | 17.7 | 9th |
| W15 | vs DEN | Sun, Dec 20 | 12.9 | 14.9 | 16.8 | 11th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | NYJ | 2 car, 9 yd · 3/4 rec, 64 yd | 7.3 | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| W7 | LAR | 8 car, 15 yd · 8/8 rec, 61 yd, 1 TD | 13.6 | 17.6 | 21.6 |
| W6 | BUF | 10 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 4/6 rec, 36 yd | 11.8 | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| W5 | NE | 10 car, 27 yd · 3/6 rec, 50 yd | 7.7 | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| W4 | KC | 15 car, 58 yd · 6/8 rec, 68 yd | 12.6 | 15.6 | 18.6 |
| W3 | NO | 19 car, 56 yd · 3/3 rec, 37 yd | 9.3 | 10.8 | 12.3 |
| W2 | LAC | 21 car, 48 yd · 4/7 rec, 15 yd | 6.3 | 8.3 | 10.3 |
| W1 | MIA | 23 car, 102 yd · 6/6 rec, 45 yd, 2 TD | 26.7 | 29.7 | 32.7 |