ATL — Week 2 vs CAR, who allow the 1st-most points to RBs — recently D'Andre Swift put up 31.4 on them (W1).
31.3 PPR points against PIT on 21 car, 83 yd · 8/10 rec, 90 yd, 1 TD — beat his 21.5 projection by 9.8. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Bijan Robinson projects 22.5 PPR points in week 2 vs CAR — the 1st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 31.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs CAR: 291 rushing yards a game allowed at 7.46 a carry · 6 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 1st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 77% offensive snaps · 18.5 carries/game (58.7% of team carries) · 69.9% of the backfield's touches · 7 targets/game, 32.8% target share · 77.5 rushing and 49.5 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 78.2% offensive snaps, 16.9 carries/game (60.2% of team carries), 69.9% of the backfield's touches, 6.1 targets/game, 19.8% target share, 86.9 rushing and 48.2 receiving yards/game, 11 TD. (2025) TD luck: 11 scored vs 9.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.3 · median 18.7 · ceiling 33.5 — 83% chance of 10+, 65% of 15+, 45% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Bijan Robinson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs CAR | Sun, Sep 20 | 18.4 | 20.4 | 22.5 | 1st · soft |
| W3 | @ GB | Thu, Sep 24 | 16.4 | 18.7 | 20.9 | 11th |
| W4 | @ NO | Mon, Oct 5 | 15.1 | 17.3 | 19.5 | 5th · soft |
| W5 | vs BAL | Sun, Oct 11 | 15.5 | 17.7 | 19.9 | 10th |
| W6 | vs CHI | Sun, Oct 18 | 18.5 | 20.8 | 23.0 | 7th · soft |
| W7 | vs SF | Sun, Oct 25 | 17.2 | 19.5 | 21.7 | 13th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PIT | 21 car, 83 yd · 8/10 rec, 90 yd, 1 TD | 23.3 | 27.3 | 31.3 |