ATL — Week 9 vs CIN, who allow the 21st-most points to RBs — recently Derrick Henry put up 4.9 on them (W7), Tony Pollard put up 25.7 on them (W8).
7.6 PPR points against TB on 19 car, 76 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd — missed his 21.9 projection by 14.3. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Bijan Robinson projects 23.2 PPR points in week 9 vs CIN — the 21st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 10.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CIN: 122.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.89 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 95.5 rushing yards · 25.5 receiving yards · 60% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 72.6% offensive snaps · 18.8 carries/game (64.1% of team carries) · 73.2% of the backfield's touches · 4.1 targets/game, 16.4% target share · 97.5 rushing and 25.4 receiving yards/game, 5 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 78.2% offensive snaps, 16.9 carries/game (60.2% of team carries), 69.9% of the backfield's touches, 6.1 targets/game, 19.8% target share, 86.9 rushing and 48.2 receiving yards/game, 11 TD. (2026) TD luck: 5 scored vs 4.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.5 · median 19.9 · ceiling 36.1 — 82% chance of 10+, 71% of 15+, 49% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Bijan Robinson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs CIN | Sun, Nov 8 | 19.8 | 21.5 | 23.2 | 21st |
| W10 | vs KC | Sun, Nov 15 | 16.9 | 18.7 | 20.4 | 24th |
| W12 | @ MIN | Sun, Nov 29 | 16.0 | 17.6 | 19.3 | 22nd |
| W13 | vs DET | Sun, Dec 6 | 20.2 | 22.1 | 23.9 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 13 | 17.5 | 19.2 | 21.0 | 16th |
| W15 | @ WAS | Sun, Dec 20 | 18.3 | 20.1 | 22.0 | 26th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | TB | 19 car, 76 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| W7 | SF | 20 car, 63 yd · 5/5 rec, 59 yd | 12.2 | 14.7 | 17.2 |
| W6 | CHI | 9 car, 61 yd · 2/2 rec, -8 yd | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.3 |
| W5 | BAL | 17 car, 86 yd · 4/7 rec, 32 yd | 11.8 | 13.8 | 15.8 |
| W4 | NO | 19 car, 145 yd, 2 TD · 1/2 rec, 2 yd | 26.7 | 27.2 | 27.7 |
| W3 | GB | 29 car, 194 yd, 2 TD · 2/2 rec, 19 yd | 33.3 | 34.3 | 35.3 |
| W2 | CAR | 16 car, 72 yd · 3/4 rec, 9 yd | 8.1 | 9.6 | 11.1 |
| W1 | PIT | 21 car, 83 yd · 8/10 rec, 90 yd, 1 TD | 23.3 | 27.3 | 31.3 |