DEN — Week 9 at CAR, who allow the 18th-most points to QBs — recently Baker Mayfield put up 6.7 on them (W7), Jordan Love put up 22.5 on them (W8).
19.3 PPR points against KC on 20/32, 222 pass yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 4 yd — beat his 14.6 projection by 4.7. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Bo Nix projects 15.5 PPR points in week 9 at CAR — the 18th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 16.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CAR: 219.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.4/attempt) · 1.4 passing TDs/gm · 1.4 sacks and 0.6 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 20.6 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 212.5 passing yards · 1.55 passing TDs · 14.5 rushing yards · 18% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 99.8% offensive snaps · 31.3 attempts/game, 59.6% completions, 6 yards/attempt, 186.6 passing yards/game, 9 TD to 3 INT · 4 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 99.6% offensive snaps, 36 attempts/game, 63.4% completions, 6.4 yards/attempt, 231.2 passing yards/game, 25 TD to 11 INT, 4.9 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 9 thrown vs 11.4 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6 · median 15.3 · ceiling 24.3 — 77% chance of 10+, 52% of 15+, 27% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Bo Nix in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 8 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 18th |
| W11 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 22 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 5th · soft |
| W12 | @ PIT | Fri, Nov 27 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 30th · tough |
| W13 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 6 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 3rd · soft |
| W14 | @ NYJ | Sun, Dec 13 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16th |
| W15 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 20 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 5th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | KC | 20/32, 222 pass yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 4 yd | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| W7 | ARI | 15/29, 222 pass yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 73 yd, 1 TD | 26.2 | 26.2 | 26.2 |
| W6 | SEA | 17/27, 107 pass yd · 4 car, 2 yd | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| W5 | LAC | 16/27, 123 pass yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 10 yd · 1 fum | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| W4 | SF | 25/42, 214 pass yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 10 yd | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
| W3 | LAR | 17/34, 186 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 7 yd, 1 TD | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25.1 |
| W2 | JAX | 22/31, 288 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 6 yd | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 |
| W1 | KC | 17/28, 131 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 2 yd · 1 fum | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |