DEN — Week 2 vs JAX, who allow the 21st-most points to QBs — recently Deshaun Watson put up 15 on them (W1).
6.4 PPR points against KC on 17/28, 131 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 2 yd · 1 fum — missed his 17.9 projection by 11.5. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Bo Nix projects 15.7 PPR points in week 2 vs JAX — the 21st-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 6.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs JAX: 205 passing yards a game allowed (9.32/attempt) · 1 passing TDs/gm · 5 sacks and 1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 38 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 29.5 attempts/game, 66.1% completions, 7.1 yards/attempt, 209.5 passing yards/game, 2 TD to 2 INT · 4 carries/game. 2025 baseline (17 games): 99.6% offensive snaps, 36 attempts/game, 63.4% completions, 6.4 yards/attempt, 231.2 passing yards/game, 25 TD to 11 INT, 4.9 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 25 thrown vs 31.1 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6 · median 15.6 · ceiling 24 — 78% chance of 10+, 54% of 15+, 26% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Bo Nix in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
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| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs JAX | Sun, Sep 20 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 21st |
| W3 | vs LAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 10th |
| W4 | @ SF | Sun, Oct 4 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 31st · tough |
| W5 | @ LAC | Sun, Oct 11 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16th |
| W6 | vs SEA | Thu, Oct 15 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 24th |
| W7 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 25 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 22nd |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC | 17/28, 131 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 2 yd · 1 fum | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |