NYJ — Week 9 at KC, who allow the 24th-most points to RBs — recently Emanuel Wilson put up 17.5 on them (W7), Jonah Coleman put up 16.4 on them (W8).
23.3 PPR points against LV on 21 car, 147 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 6 yd — beat his 16.4 projection by 6.9. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Braelon Allen projects 10.5 PPR points in week 9 at KC — the 24th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 18.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs KC: 96.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.59 a carry · 0.7 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 24th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 34% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 68.9% offensive snaps · 14 carries/game (54.4% of team carries) · 61.8% of the backfield's touches · 2.8 targets/game, 10% target share · 70.6 rushing and 10.1 receiving yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (4 games): 23.3% offensive snaps, 4.5 carries/game (16.2% of team carries), 20.6% of the backfield's touches, 0.8 targets/game, 2.6% target share, 19 rushing and 4.3 receiving yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2 · median 7.9 · ceiling 19.4 — 39% chance of 10+, 20% of 15+, 9% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Braelon Allen in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 8 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 24th |
| W10 | vs BUF | Sun, Nov 15 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 6th · soft |
| W11 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 22 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 10.7 | 9th |
| W12 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 29 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 10th |
| W14 | vs DEN | Sun, Dec 13 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 11th |
| W15 | @ ARI | Sun, Dec 20 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 15th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | LV | 21 car, 147 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 6 yd | 21.3 | 22.3 | 23.3 |
| W7 | MIA | 17 car, 104 yd · 6/7 rec, 30 yd | 13.4 | 16.4 | 19.4 |
| W6 | NE | 17 car, 78 yd · 2/2 rec, 26 yd | 10.4 | 11.4 | 12.4 |
| W5 | CLE | 24 car, 116 yd, 1 TD · 1/4 rec, 0 yd | 17.6 | 18.1 | 18.6 |
| W4 | CHI | 14 car, 59 yd · 2/2 rec, 8 yd | 6.7 | 7.7 | 8.7 |
| W3 | DET | 4 car, 14 yd · 3/3 rec, 3 yd | 1.7 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| W2 | GB | 5 car, 7 yd, 1 TD · 1/1 rec, 8 yd | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| W1 | TEN | 10 car, 40 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |