KC — Week 1 vs DEN, who allow the 29th-most points to RBs — recently Brashard Smith put up 6.5 on them (W17), Jaret Patterson put up 3.7 on them (W18).
Brashard Smith projects 0.9 PPR points in week 1 vs DEN — the 29th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 6.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs DEN: 90.9 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.9 a carry · 0.6 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 29th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DEN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 2 rushing yards · 5.5 receiving yards · 11% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 16.7% offensive snaps · 2.6 carries/game · 6.6% target share. TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Brashard Smith in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs DEN | Mon, Sep 14 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 29th · tough |
| W2 | vs IND | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 22nd |
| W3 | @ MIA | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 6th · soft |
| W4 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 13th |
| W6 | vs LAC | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 27th · tough |
| W7 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 25 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 32nd · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | LV | 12 car, 56 yd · 2/4 rec, 2 yd | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 |
| W17 | DEN | 3/4 rec, 5 yd, 1 TD | 6.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| W16 | TEN | 1/1 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W15 | LAC | 2 car, 1 yd | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| W14 | HOU | 1 car, 7 yd | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| W12 | IND | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/4 rec, 31 yd | 3.6 | 5.1 | 6.6 |
| W11 | DEN | 2/3 rec, 8 yd | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| W9 | BUF | 3 car, 7 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| W8 | WAS | 3 car, 8 yd | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| W7 | LV | 14 car, 39 yd · 5/5 rec, 42 yd | 8.1 | 10.6 | 13.1 |
| W6 | DET | 3/4 rec, 21 yd | 2.1 | 3.6 | 5.1 |
| W5 | JAX | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/3 rec, 32 yd | 3.6 | 5.1 | 6.6 |
| W4 | BAL | 4 car, 9 yd · 3/4 rec, 27 yd | 3.6 | 5.1 | 6.6 |
| W3 | NYG | 2 car, 13 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| W2 | PHI | 1 car, 2 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |