JAX — Week 9 at BAL, who allow the 15th-most points to TEs — recently Drew Sample put up 8.4 on them (W7), Dalton Kincaid put up 14.6 on them (W8).
7.5 PPR points against IND on 2/2 rec, 55 yd — right on his 10.1 projection (-2.6). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Brenton Strange projects 9.8 PPR points in week 9 at BAL — the 15th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 10.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BAL: 241.9 passing yards a game allowed (7.41/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.5 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 15th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 39.5 receiving yards · 28% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 74.9% offensive snaps · 5 targets/game, 17.8% target share · 17.8% air-yard share (aDOT 7.9) · 4 catches for 47.7 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 74.8% offensive snaps, 5 targets/game, 15.6% target share, 12.3% air-yard share (aDOT 6.9), 3.8 catches for 45 yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.3 · median 6.7 · ceiling 14 — 27% chance of 10+, 9% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Brenton Strange in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ BAL | Thu, Nov 5 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 15th |
| W10 | @ TEN | Sun, Nov 15 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 20th |
| W11 | @ NYG | Sun, Nov 22 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 22nd |
| W12 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 29 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 20th |
| W13 | @ CHI | Sun, Dec 6 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 21st |
| W14 | vs PIT | Mon, Dec 14 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | IND | 2/2 rec, 55 yd | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| W6 | HOU | 5/7 rec, 44 yd | 4.4 | 6.9 | 9.4 |
| W5 | PHI | 7/8 rec, 68 yd | 6.8 | 10.3 | 13.8 |
| W4 | CIN | 7/8 rec, 95 yd | 9.5 | 13.0 | 16.5 |
| W3 | NE | 3/5 rec, 32 yd | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.2 |
| W2 | DEN | 2/2 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| W1 | CLE | 2/3 rec, 23 yd, 1 TD | 8.3 | 9.3 | 10.3 |