JAX — Week 2 at DEN, who allow the 16th-most points to TEs — recently Travis Kelce put up 7.1 on them (W1).
10.3 PPR points against CLE on 2/3 rec, 23 yd, 1 TD — right on his 8.2 projection (+2.1). The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Brenton Strange projects 7.9 PPR points in week 2 at DEN — the 16th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 10.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DEN: 184 passing yards a game allowed (6.81/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 16th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how DEN defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 68% offensive snaps · 2.5 targets/game, 10.7% target share · 9.8% air-yard share (aDOT 10.2) · 2 catches for 20 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 74.8% offensive snaps, 5 targets/game, 15.6% target share, 12.3% air-yard share (aDOT 6.9), 3.8 catches for 45 yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 3.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.6 · median 5.2 · ceiling 11.1 — 16% chance of 10+, 4% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Brenton Strange in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ DEN | Sun, Sep 20 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 16th |
| W3 | vs NE | Sun, Sep 27 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 30th · tough |
| W4 | @ CIN | Sun, Oct 4 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 28th · tough |
| W5 | vs PHI | Sun, Oct 11 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 27th · tough |
| W6 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 18 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 6th · soft |
| W8 | vs IND | Sun, Nov 1 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CLE | 2/3 rec, 23 yd, 1 TD | 8.3 | 9.3 | 10.3 |