ATL · Questionable — Hamstring — Week 9 vs CIN, who allow the 21st-most points to RBs — recently Derrick Henry put up 4.9 on them (W7), Tony Pollard put up 25.7 on them (W8).
Brian Robinson Jr. projects 6.1 PPR points in week 9 vs CIN — the 21st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 10.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CIN: 122.3 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.89 a carry · 1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how CIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 31% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 30.3% offensive snaps · 8.8 carries/game (29.9% of team carries) · 29.9% of the backfield's touches · 1 targets/game, 3.4% target share · 35.2 rushing and 5 receiving yards/game, 4 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 16.7% offensive snaps, 5.4 carries/game (19.1% of team carries), 18.1% of the backfield's touches, 0.7 targets/game, 2.1% target share, 23.5 rushing and 1.5 receiving yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 4 scored vs 1.3 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0 · median 4.3 · ceiling 13.2 — 20% chance of 10+, 8% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Brian Robinson Jr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs CIN | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 21st |
| W10 | vs KC | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 24th |
| W12 | @ MIN | Sun, Nov 29 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 22nd |
| W13 | vs DET | Sun, Dec 6 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | @ CLE | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 16th |
| W15 | @ WAS | Sun, Dec 20 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 26th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W6 | CHI | 2 car, 1 yd · 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| W5 | BAL | 7 car, 16 yd · 0/1 rec, 0 yd | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| W4 | NO | 14 car, 62 yd, 3 TD · 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 24.7 | 25.2 | 25.7 |
| W3 | GB | 10 car, 50 yd, 1 TD | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| W2 | CAR | 11 car, 51 yd · 2/2 rec, 16 yd | 6.7 | 7.7 | 8.7 |
| W1 | PIT | 9 car, 31 yd | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 |