JAX — Week 9 at BAL, who allow the 10th-most points to WRs — recently Tee Higgins put up 20.8 on them (W7), DJ Moore put up 12.6 on them (W8).
8.2 PPR points against IND on 1/2 rec, 12 yd, 1 TD — beat his 4.1 projection by 4.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Brian Thomas Jr. projects 3.8 PPR points in week 9 at BAL — the 10th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 6.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs BAL: 241.9 passing yards a game allowed (7.41/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.5 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how BAL defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 14.5 receiving yards · 15% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 44.6% offensive snaps · 3 targets/game, 11.4% target share · 15% air-yard share (aDOT 12.2) · 1.4 catches for 16.7 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (14 games): 77.6% offensive snaps, 6.5 targets/game, 19.3% target share, 31.6% air-yard share (aDOT 14.5), 3.4 catches for 50.5 yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.3 · median 2.6 · ceiling 6 — 1% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Brian Thomas Jr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ BAL | Thu, Nov 5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 10th |
| W10 | @ TEN | Sun, Nov 15 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2nd · soft |
| W11 | @ NYG | Sun, Nov 22 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 17th |
| W12 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 29 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2nd · soft |
| W13 | @ CHI | Sun, Dec 6 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 13th |
| W14 | vs PIT | Mon, Dec 14 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | IND | 1/2 rec, 12 yd, 1 TD | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.2 |
| W4 | CIN | 2/2 rec, 17 yd, 1 TD | 7.7 | 8.7 | 9.7 |
| W3 | NE | 1/1 rec, 8 yd | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| W2 | DEN | 3/9 rec, 40 yd | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| W1 | CLE | 3/3 rec, 40 yd | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 |