JAX — Week 2 at DEN, who allow the 29th-most points to WRs — recently Rashee Rice put up 7.9 on them (W1).
7.0 PPR points against CLE on 3/3 rec, 40 yd — missed his 10.5 projection by 3.5. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Brian Thomas projects 8.3 PPR points in week 2 at DEN — the 29th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DEN: 184 passing yards a game allowed (6.81/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 29th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how DEN defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 35% offensive snaps · 5.5 targets/game, 21.4% target share · 22.7% air-yard share (aDOT 11.5) · 3 catches for 40 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (14 games): 77.6% offensive snaps, 6.5 targets/game, 19.3% target share, 31.6% air-yard share (aDOT 14.5), 3.4 catches for 50.5 yards/game, 3 TD. (2025) TD luck: 3 scored vs 5.7 expected — under expectation, positive regression due. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.5 · median 5.7 · ceiling 12.8 — 20% chance of 10+, 7% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Brian Thomas in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ DEN | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 29th · tough |
| W3 | vs NE | Sun, Sep 27 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 13th |
| W4 | @ CIN | Sun, Oct 4 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 21st |
| W5 | vs PHI | Sun, Oct 11 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 9th |
| W6 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 18 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 5th · soft |
| W8 | vs IND | Sun, Nov 1 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 7th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CLE | 3/3 rec, 40 yd | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 |