SF — Week 9 vs LV, who allow the 5th-most points to QBs — recently Matthew Stafford put up 18.5 on them (W7), Geno Smith put up 19 on them (W8).
Brock Purdy projects 22.2 PPR points in week 9 vs LV — the 5th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 16.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LV: 250.8 passing yards a game allowed (7.9/attempt) · 2.3 passing TDs/gm · 2.4 sacks and 0.9 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 13 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 251.5 passing yards · 2.29 passing TDs · 14.5 rushing yards · 22% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 97.9% offensive snaps · 30.1 attempts/game, 69.2% completions, 8.3 yards/attempt, 249.7 passing yards/game, 15 TD to 4 INT · 4.6 carries/game. 2025 baseline (9 games): 97.8% offensive snaps, 31.6 attempts/game, 69.4% completions, 7.6 yards/attempt, 240.8 passing yards/game, 20 TD to 10 INT, 3.7 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 15 thrown vs 13.9 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 10.6 · median 21.9 · ceiling 33.2 — 91% chance of 10+, 79% of 15+, 60% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Brock Purdy in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 8 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 5th · soft |
| W10 | @ DAL | Sun, Nov 15 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 6th · soft |
| W11 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 22 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 32nd · tough |
| W12 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 29 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 31st · tough |
| W13 | @ NYG | Sun, Dec 6 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 7th · soft |
| W14 | vs LAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | ATL | 27/40, 288 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 5 yd | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| W6 | WAS | 21/29, 264 pass yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 28 yd | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| W5 | SEA | 19/29, 189 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 6 yd | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 |
| W4 | DEN | 19/30, 218 pass yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 29 yd | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| W3 | ARI | 15/27, 297 pass yd, 4 TD · 2 car, 34 yd | 31.3 | 31.3 | 31.3 |
| W2 | MIA | 20/22, 287 pass yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 30 yd, 1 TD | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 |
| W1 | LAR | 25/34, 205 pass yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 29 yd | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.1 |