TB — Week 9 at CHI, who allow the 21st-most points to TEs — recently Eli Raridon put up 11.6 on them (W7), AJ Barner put up 2.3 on them (W8).
Cade Otton projects 7.7 PPR points in week 9 at CHI — the 21st-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 4.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CHI: 234.6 passing yards a game allowed (8.23/attempt) · 1.6 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 26.5 receiving yards · 21% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 94% offensive snaps · 4.3 targets/game, 15.3% target share · 17.2% air-yard share (aDOT 6.3) · 2.7 catches for 26.6 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (15 games): 93.5% offensive snaps, 5.4 targets/game, 17.4% target share, 11.6% air-yard share (aDOT 5.2), 3.9 catches for 38.1 yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.9 · median 5 · ceiling 11.7 — 16% chance of 10+, 4% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Cade Otton in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CHI | Sun, Nov 8 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 21st |
| W11 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 1st · soft |
| W12 | vs CAR | Mon, Nov 30 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 13th |
| W13 | vs LAC | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 26th · tough |
| W14 | @ BAL | Sun, Dec 13 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 15th |
| W15 | vs NO | Sun, Dec 20 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 7th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W6 | PIT | 1/2 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W5 | DAL | 3/4 rec, 25 yd | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 |
| W4 | GB | 4/6 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 5.7 | 7.7 |
| W3 | MIN | 3/6 rec, 56 yd | 5.6 | 7.1 | 8.6 |
| W2 | CLE | 5/6 rec, 38 yd | 3.8 | 6.3 | 8.8 |
| W1 | CIN | 3/5 rec, 26 yd | 2.6 | 4.1 | 5.6 |