HOU — Week 1 vs BUF, who allow the 31st-most points to TEs — recently Dallas Goedert put up 6.8 on them (W17), Jelani Woods put up 2 on them (W18).
Cade Stover projects 1.8 PPR points in week 1 vs BUF — the 31st-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 3.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs BUF: 170.2 passing yards a game allowed (6.25/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.8 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 31st-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 5% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 44% offensive snaps · 9.3% target share · 2.2% air-yard share (aDOT 1.9). TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Cade Stover in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs BUF | Sun, Sep 13 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 31st · tough |
| W2 | vs CIN | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1st · soft |
| W3 | @ IND | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 8th · soft |
| W4 | vs DAL | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 21st |
| W5 | @ TEN | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 11th |
| W6 | @ JAX | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 10th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | IND | 1/2 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| W16 | LV | 2/3 rec, 7 yd | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| W15 | ARI | 3/3 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 3.7 | 5.2 |
| W13 | IND | 4 car, 3 yd · 2/2 rec, 16 yd | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| W1 | LAR | 4/4 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 4.2 | 6.2 |