MIA — Week 9 vs DET, who allow the 7th-most points to WRs — recently Christian Watson put up 5.7 on them (W7), Justin Jefferson put up 9.3 on them (W8).
8.3 PPR points against NE on 4/6 rec, 43 yd — right on his 6.8 projection (+1.5). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Caleb Douglas projects 8.6 PPR points in week 9 vs DET — the 7th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 11.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DET: 298.7 passing yards a game allowed (7.29/attempt) · 2.6 TDs/gm through the air · 0.7 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 7th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how DET defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 40.5 receiving yards · 25% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 4 games): 82.8% offensive snaps · 4.8 targets/game, 18.3% target share · 25.1% air-yard share (aDOT 12.3) · 3.3 catches for 56.5 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 0.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.5 · median 5.5 · ceiling 15 — 25% chance of 10+, 11% of 15+, 4% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Caleb Douglas in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DET | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 7th · soft |
| W10 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 15 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 23rd |
| W11 | @ BUF | Sun, Nov 22 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 3rd · soft |
| W12 | vs NYJ | Sun, Nov 29 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 21st |
| W13 | @ DEN | Sun, Dec 6 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 27th · tough |
| W14 | vs CHI | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 13th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | NE | 4/6 rec, 43 yd | 4.3 | 6.3 | 8.3 |
| W7 | NYJ | 2/3 rec, 70 yd, 2 TD | 19.0 | 20.0 | 21.0 |
| W2 | SF | 2/3 rec, 19 yd | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| W1 | LV | 5/7 rec, 94 yd | 9.4 | 11.9 | 14.4 |