DAL — Week 9 at IND, who allow the 23rd-most points to WRs — recently Justin Jefferson put up 4.4 on them (W7), Brian Thomas Jr. put up 7.2 on them (W8).
12.8 PPR points against ARI on 7/11 rec, 58 yd — missed his 22.1 projection by 9.3. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
CeeDee Lamb projects 20.2 PPR points in week 9 at IND — the 23rd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 17.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs IND: 226.3 passing yards a game allowed (7.87/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.3 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 23rd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 82.5 receiving yards · 50% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 78.3% offensive snaps · 11.5 targets/game, 31.9% target share · 39.1% air-yard share (aDOT 9.9) · 7.5 catches for 88.6 yards/game, 6 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 72.9% offensive snaps, 9 targets/game, 25.1% target share, 33.5% air-yard share (aDOT 12), 5.8 catches for 82.8 yards/game, 3 TD. (2026) TD luck: 6 scored vs 5.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.8 · median 16.3 · ceiling 27.6 — 77% chance of 10+, 55% of 15+, 31% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare CeeDee Lamb in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ IND | Sun, Nov 8 | 13.4 | 16.8 | 20.2 | 23rd |
| W10 | vs SF | Sun, Nov 15 | 12.2 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 22nd |
| W11 | vs TEN | Sun, Nov 22 | 13.5 | 17.2 | 20.8 | 2nd · soft |
| W12 | vs PHI | Thu, Nov 26 | 12.3 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 1st · soft |
| W13 | @ SEA | Mon, Dec 7 | 12.1 | 15.4 | 18.7 | 32nd · tough |
| W15 | @ LAR | Sun, Dec 20 | 12.2 | 15.4 | 18.5 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | ARI | 7/11 rec, 58 yd | 5.8 | 9.3 | 12.8 |
| W7 | PHI | 5/12 rec, 74 yd, 2 TD | 19.4 | 21.9 | 24.4 |
| W6 | GB | 9/18 rec, 70 yd | 7.0 | 11.5 | 16.0 |
| W5 | TB | 2/5 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| W4 | HOU | 1 car, -6 yd · 17/21 rec, 189 yd, 1 TD | 24.3 | 32.8 | 41.3 |
| W3 | BAL | 7/8 rec, 112 yd | 13.2 | 16.7 | 20.2 |
| W2 | WAS | 8/9 rec, 153 yd, 2 TD | 27.3 | 31.3 | 35.3 |
| W1 | NYG | 1 car, 0 yd · 5/8 rec, 44 yd, 1 TD | 10.4 | 12.9 | 15.4 |