LAC — Week 1 vs ARI, who allow the 3rd-most points to TEs — recently Mike Gesicki put up 4.7 on them (W17), Colby Parkinson put up 15.6 on them (W18).
Charlie Kolar projects 4.0 PPR points in week 1 vs ARI — the 3rd-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 2.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs ARI: 242.8 passing yards a game allowed (7.22/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 3rd-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how ARI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 16.5 receiving yards · 21% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 40.4% offensive snaps · 4.6% target share · 3.7% air-yard share (aDOT 7.1). TD luck: 2 scored vs 0.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.9 · median 2.6 · ceiling 6.8 — 2% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Charlie Kolar in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs ARI | Sun, Sep 13 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3rd · soft |
| W2 | vs LV | Sun, Sep 20 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 30th · tough |
| W3 | @ BUF | Sun, Sep 27 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 31st · tough |
| W4 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 12th |
| W5 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 11 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 17th |
| W6 | @ KC | Sun, Oct 18 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 28th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W16 | NE | 1/1 rec, 18 yd | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| W14 | PIT | 1/1 rec, 19 yd | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| W13 | CIN | 1/1 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| W10 | MIN | 1/2 rec, 23 yd | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| W9 | MIA | 2/2 rec, 23 yd, 1 TD | 8.3 | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| W8 | CHI | 1/1 rec, 10 yd, 1 TD | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| W5 | HOU | 1/1 rec, 10 yd | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| W3 | DET | 2/3 rec, 22 yd | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.2 |