ATL — Week 1 at PIT, who allow the 4th-most points to TEs — recently Harold Fannin put up 9 on them (W17), Isaiah Likely put up 3.2 on them (W18).
Charlie Woerner projects 0.8 PPR points in week 1 at PIT — the 4th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 3.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs PIT: 261 passing yards a game allowed (7.24/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how PIT defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 5% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 50.8% offensive snaps · 4.6% target share · 0.6% air-yard share (aDOT 1.3). TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Charlie Woerner in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ PIT | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4th · soft |
| W2 | vs CAR | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 14th |
| W3 | @ GB | Thu, Sep 24 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 24th |
| W4 | @ NO | Mon, Oct 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 19th |
| W5 | vs BAL | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 29th · tough |
| W6 | vs CHI | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W16 | ARI | 1/1 rec, 3 yd | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| W15 | TB | 2/2 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| W12 | NO | 3/3 rec, 24 yd | 2.4 | 3.9 | 5.4 |
| W10 | IND | 1/1 rec, 14 yd | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| W3 | CAR | 1/1 rec, -5 yd | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 |