GB — Week 1 at MIN, who allow the 21st-most points to RBs — recently Jahmyr Gibbs put up 4.4 on them (W17), Chris Brooks put up 6.1 on them (W18).
Chris Brooks projects 5.1 PPR points in week 1 at MIN — the 21st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 2.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs MIN: 122.6 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.99 a carry · 0.8 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 23% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 20.1% offensive snaps · 1.6 carries/game · 3.6% target share. TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.6 · median 3.1 · ceiling 10.4 — 12% chance of 10+, 2% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Chris Brooks in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ MIN | Sun, Sep 13 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 21st |
| W2 | @ NYJ | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1st · soft |
| W3 | vs ATL | Thu, Sep 24 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 17th |
| W4 | @ TB | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 16th |
| W5 | vs CHI | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 19th |
| W6 | vs DAL | Sun, Oct 18 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | MIN | 13 car, 61 yd | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| W17 | BAL | 1/2 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| W16 | CHI | 1 car, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| W15 | DEN | 2 car, 10 yd · 1/2 rec, 6 yd | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| W14 | CHI | 1/1 rec, 6 yd | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| W13 | DET | 2/2 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| W12 | MIN | 8 car, 21 yd · 1/1 rec, 5 yd | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| W11 | NYG | 1 car, 8 yd | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| W9 | CAR | 2/2 rec, 24 yd | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| W6 | CIN | 1 car, 1 yd | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| W4 | DAL | 1/1 rec, 1 yd | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| W2 | WAS | 3/4 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| W1 | DET | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1 rec, 2 yd | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 |