TB — Week 9 at CHI, who allow the 13th-most points to WRs — recently A.J. Brown put up 4.8 on them (W7), Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up 17.8 on them (W8).
Chris Godwin Jr. projects 9.5 PPR points in week 9 at CHI — the 13th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 7.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CHI: 234.6 passing yards a game allowed (8.23/attempt) · 1.6 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 13th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 33.5 receiving yards · 24% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 82.3% offensive snaps · 4.4 targets/game, 21.6% target share · 8.2% air-yard share (aDOT 3.9) · 3.4 catches for 30.4 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (9 games): 70.9% offensive snaps, 5.7 targets/game, 17.9% target share, 15.7% air-yard share (aDOT 7.1), 3.7 catches for 40 yards/game, 2 TD. (2026) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.1 · median 6.1 · ceiling 15.4 — 27% chance of 10+, 11% of 15+, 5% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Chris Godwin Jr. in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CHI | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 13th |
| W11 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 22 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 7th · soft |
| W12 | vs CAR | Mon, Nov 30 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 25th · tough |
| W13 | vs LAC | Sun, Dec 6 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 18th |
| W14 | @ BAL | Sun, Dec 13 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 10th |
| W15 | vs NO | Sun, Dec 20 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 19th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | CAR | 4/5 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.7 | 6.7 |
| W6 | PIT | 4/8 rec, 37 yd | 3.7 | 5.7 | 7.7 |
| W5 | DAL | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/3 rec, 37 yd | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| W4 | GB | 6/7 rec, 31 yd | 3.1 | 6.1 | 9.1 |
| W3 | MIN | 3/4 rec, 25 yd | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 |
| W2 | CLE | 1 car, 12 yd · 3/3 rec, 46 yd | 5.8 | 7.3 | 8.8 |
| W1 | CIN | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/4 rec, 40 yd | 4.3 | 6.3 | 8.3 |