JAX — Week 2 at DEN, who allow the 2nd-most points to RBs — recently Kenneth Walker put up 31.1 on them (W1).
2.3 PPR points against CLE on 6 car, 23 yd — missed his 8.1 projection by 5.8. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Chris Rodriguez projects 6.6 PPR points in week 2 at DEN — the 2nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 2.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DEN: 220 rushing yards a game allowed at 5.79 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 2nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DEN defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 40% offensive snaps · 6 carries/game (21.4% of team carries) · 22.6% of the backfield's touches · 18 rushing and 0 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 31.2% offensive snaps, 9.3 carries/game (32.1% of team carries), 39.7% of the backfield's touches, 0.3 targets/game, 1.3% target share, 41.7 rushing and 2.5 receiving yards/game, 6 TD. (2025) TD luck: 6 scored vs 7.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.6 · median 5.4 · ceiling 12.3 — 17% chance of 10+, 6% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Chris Rodriguez in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ DEN | Sun, Sep 20 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 2nd · soft |
| W3 | vs NE | Sun, Sep 27 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 23rd |
| W4 | @ CIN | Sun, Oct 4 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 20th |
| W5 | vs PHI | Sun, Oct 11 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 18th |
| W6 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 18 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 28th · tough |
| W8 | vs IND | Sun, Nov 1 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 3rd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CLE | 6 car, 23 yd | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |