HOU — Week 9 at LAC, who allow the 26th-most points to QBs — recently Patrick Mahomes put up 11.5 on them (W6), Matthew Stafford put up 9.3 on them (W8).
C.J. Stroud projects 17.8 PPR points in week 9 at LAC — the 26th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 20.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LAC: 207.7 passing yards a game allowed (7.42/attempt) · 1.1 passing TDs/gm · 1.7 sacks and 0.9 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 9.9 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 26th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how LAC defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 249.5 passing yards · 1.65 passing TDs · 5.5 rushing yards · 16% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 100% offensive snaps · 35.3 attempts/game, 64.8% completions, 7.6 yards/attempt, 266.7 passing yards/game, 11 TD to 1 INT · 2.6 carries/game. 2025 baseline (14 games): 91.2% offensive snaps, 30.2 attempts/game, 64.5% completions, 7.2 yards/attempt, 217.2 passing yards/game, 19 TD to 8 INT, 3.4 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 11 thrown vs 12.4 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 8.8 · median 17.6 · ceiling 26.1 — 85% chance of 10+, 66% of 15+, 37% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare C.J. Stroud in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 17.8 | 26th · tough |
| W10 | @ CLE | Sun, Nov 15 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 25th · tough |
| W11 | vs IND | Thu, Nov 19 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 15th |
| W12 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 29 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 13th |
| W13 | @ PIT | Sun, Dec 6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 30th · tough |
| W14 | @ WAS | Sun, Dec 13 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 4th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | NYG | 17/28, 153 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 4 yd | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| W6 | JAX | 24/34, 312 pass yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 5 yd | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| W5 | TEN | 26/34, 261 pass yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 5 yd, 1 TD | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 |
| W4 | DAL | 21/31, 347 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 12 yd | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.1 |
| W3 | IND | 16/27, 167 pass yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 10 yd | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| W2 | CIN | 30/55, 353 pass yd · 3 car, 29 yd | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 |
| W1 | BUF | 26/38, 274 pass yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 15 yd · 2 fum | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |