CHI — Week 2 vs MIN, who allow the 9th-most points to TEs — recently Tucker Kraft put up 6.5 on them (W1).
11.5 PPR points against CAR on 2/3 rec, 35 yd, 1 TD — beat his 4.6 projection by 6.9. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Cole Kmet projects 3.9 PPR points in week 2 vs MIN — the 9th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 11.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIN: 387 passing yards a game allowed (9.21/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 9th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 57% offensive snaps · 2 targets/game, 7.4% target share · 9.7% air-yard share (aDOT 14) · 1 catches for 17.5 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 71.4% offensive snaps, 3 targets/game, 9.6% target share, 9.6% air-yard share (aDOT 8.8), 1.9 catches for 21.7 yards/game, 2 TD. (2025) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.9 · median 2.6 · ceiling 6.4 — 2% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Cole Kmet in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs MIN | Sun, Sep 20 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 9th |
| W3 | vs PHI | Mon, Sep 28 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 27th · tough |
| W4 | vs NYJ | Sun, Oct 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 23rd |
| W5 | @ GB | Sun, Oct 11 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 8th · soft |
| W6 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 18 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 7th · soft |
| W7 | vs NE | Thu, Oct 22 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 30th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CAR | 2/3 rec, 35 yd, 1 TD | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 |