LV — Week 1 vs MIA, who allow the 6th-most points to RBs — recently Bucky Irving put up 3.3 on them (W17), Rhamondre Stevenson put up 33.3 on them (W18).
Connor Heyward projects 0.9 PPR points in week 1 vs MIA — the 6th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 5.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs MIA: 132.4 rushing yards a game allowed at 4.81 a carry · 1.1 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 11% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 8.6% offensive snaps · 1.1 carries/game · 0.9% target share. TD luck: 3 scored vs 2.8 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Connor Heyward in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 6th · soft |
| W2 | @ LAC | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 27th · tough |
| W3 | @ NO | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 18th |
| W4 | vs KC | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 26th · tough |
| W5 | @ NE | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 30th · tough |
| W6 | vs BUF | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | BAL | 3 car, 2 yd, 1 TD · 1/1 rec, 3 yd | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| W17 | CLE | 2 car, 26 yd | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| W15 | MIA | 4 car, 4 yd, 1 TD | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| W14 | BAL | 1 car, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| W11 | CIN | 2 car, 3 yd | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| W9 | IND | 1 car, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| W6 | CLE | 1/1 rec, 12 yd, 1 TD | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.2 |
| W4 | MIN | 1 car, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| W2 | SEA | 1/1 rec, 6 yd | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 |