DEN — Week 9 at CAR, who allow the 25th-most points to WRs — recently Tez Johnson put up 10.7 on them (W7), Matthew Golden put up 13.9 on them (W8).
9.3 PPR points against KC on 4/4 rec, 53 yd — right on his 7.9 projection (+1.4). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Courtland Sutton projects 7.9 PPR points in week 9 at CAR — the 25th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 6.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs CAR: 219.6 passing yards a game allowed (6.4/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 25th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how CAR defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 39.5 receiving yards · 26% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 77.3% offensive snaps · 4.6 targets/game, 16.3% target share · 34.8% air-yard share (aDOT 11.1) · 2.5 catches for 27.6 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 85.4% offensive snaps, 7.3 targets/game, 21.1% target share, 34.4% air-yard share (aDOT 12.4), 4.4 catches for 59.8 yards/game, 7 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 2.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.7 · median 5.1 · ceiling 13.1 — 20% chance of 10+, 7% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Courtland Sutton in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 8 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 25th · tough |
| W11 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 22 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 8th · soft |
| W12 | @ PIT | Fri, Nov 27 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 28th · tough |
| W13 | vs MIA | Sun, Dec 6 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | @ NYJ | Sun, Dec 13 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 21st |
| W15 | @ LV | Sun, Dec 20 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 8th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | KC | 4/4 rec, 53 yd | 5.3 | 7.3 | 9.3 |
| W7 | ARI | 3/5 rec, 45 yd | 4.5 | 6.0 | 7.5 |
| W6 | SEA | 2/3 rec, 19 yd | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| W5 | LAC | 2/3 rec, 18 yd, 1 TD | 7.8 | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| W4 | SF | 1/6 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W3 | LAR | 3/7 rec, 46 yd | 4.6 | 6.1 | 7.6 |
| W2 | JAX | 3/4 rec, 25 yd | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 |
| W1 | KC | 2/5 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.1 |