DEN — Week 2 vs JAX, who allow the 14th-most points to WRs — recently Denzel Boston put up 11.9 on them (W1).
3.1 PPR points against KC on 2/5 rec, 11 yd — missed his 10.6 projection by 7.5. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Courtland Sutton projects 10.7 PPR points in week 2 vs JAX — the 14th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 3.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs JAX: 205 passing yards a game allowed (9.32/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 14th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 76% offensive snaps · 4.5 targets/game, 16.2% target share · 27.5% air-yard share (aDOT 7.9) · 2.5 catches for 18 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 85.4% offensive snaps, 7.3 targets/game, 21.1% target share, 34.4% air-yard share (aDOT 12.4), 4.4 catches for 59.8 yards/game, 7 TD. (2025) TD luck: 7 scored vs 8.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.1 · median 7.7 · ceiling 15.8 — 36% chance of 10+, 12% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Courtland Sutton in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs JAX | Sun, Sep 20 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 14th |
| W3 | vs LAR | Sun, Sep 27 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 4th · soft |
| W4 | @ SF | Sun, Oct 4 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 28th · tough |
| W5 | @ LAC | Sun, Oct 11 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 19th |
| W6 | vs SEA | Thu, Oct 15 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 30th · tough |
| W7 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 25 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 16th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | KC | 2/5 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.1 |