BUF — Week 9 at MIN, who allow the 32nd-most points to TEs — recently Drew Ogletree put up 1.2 on them (W7), Sam LaPorta put up 3.5 on them (W8).
18.6 PPR points against BAL on 4/6 rec, 86 yd, 1 TD — beat his 10.5 projection by 8.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Dalton Kincaid projects 9.7 PPR points in week 9 at MIN — the 32nd-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 11 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs MIN: 180.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.21/attempt) · 0.6 TDs/gm through the air · 1.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 49.5 receiving yards · 28% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 66.1% offensive snaps · 5 targets/game, 17.7% target share · 18% air-yard share (aDOT 10.1) · 3.9 catches for 57.3 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (12 games): 37.4% offensive snaps, 4.1 targets/game, 14.9% target share, 20.7% air-yard share (aDOT 9.5), 3.3 catches for 47.6 yards/game, 5 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.5 · median 6.5 · ceiling 15 — 30% chance of 10+, 11% of 15+, 3% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Dalton Kincaid in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ MIN | Mon, Nov 9 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 32nd · tough |
| W10 | @ NYJ | Sun, Nov 15 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 18th |
| W11 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 22 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 3rd · soft |
| W12 | vs KC | Thu, Nov 26 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6th · soft |
| W13 | @ NE | Sun, Dec 6 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 24th |
| W14 | @ GB | Sun, Dec 13 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 31st · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BAL | 4/6 rec, 86 yd, 1 TD | 14.6 | 16.6 | 18.6 |
| W6 | LV | 7/8 rec, 38 yd | 3.8 | 7.3 | 10.8 |
| W5 | LAR | 1/2 rec, 7 yd | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| W4 | NE | 1/2 rec, 7 yd | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| W3 | LAC | 2/3 rec, 38 yd · 1 fum | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| W2 | DET | 7/8 rec, 95 yd, 1 TD | 15.5 | 19.0 | 22.5 |
| W1 | HOU | 5/6 rec, 130 yd | 13.0 | 15.5 | 18.0 |