TEN — Week 2 vs PHI, who allow the 27th-most points to TEs — recently Chig Okonkwo put up 1.6 on them (W1).
1.7 PPR points against NYJ on 1/1 rec, 7 yd — missed his 4.9 projection by 3.2. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Daniel Bellinger projects 3.9 PPR points in week 2 vs PHI — the 27th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 1.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs PHI: 164 passing yards a game allowed (4.82/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 0 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 27th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how PHI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 28% offensive snaps · 1 targets/game, 4.7% target share · 1.7% air-yard share (aDOT 2.5) · 0.5 catches for 3.5 yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (13 games): 49.9% offensive snaps, 2 targets/game, 6.3% target share, 6.6% air-yard share (aDOT 9.4), 1.5 catches for 22 yards/game, 2 TD. (2025) TD luck: 2 scored vs 2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.4 · median 2.5 · ceiling 7.2 — 4% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Daniel Bellinger in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs PHI | Sun, Sep 20 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 27th · tough |
| W3 | @ NYG | Sun, Sep 27 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 25th · tough |
| W4 | @ BAL | Sun, Oct 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 17th |
| W5 | vs HOU | Sun, Oct 11 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 6th · soft |
| W6 | @ IND | Sun, Oct 18 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 18th |
| W7 | vs CLE | Sun, Oct 25 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 12th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | NYJ | 1/1 rec, 7 yd | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |