IND — Week 2 at KC, who allow the 32nd-most points to QBs — recently Bo Nix put up 6.4 on them (W1).
10.0 PPR points against BAL on 19/31, 166 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 4 yd — missed his 15.8 projection by 5.8. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Daniel Jones projects 14.8 PPR points in week 2 at KC — the 32nd-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 10 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs KC: 131 passing yards a game allowed (4.68/attempt) · 1 passing TDs/gm · 4 sacks and 1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 31 attempts/game, 66.1% completions, 6.1 yards/attempt, 188 passing yards/game, 2 TD to 2 INT · 2 carries/game. 2025 baseline (13 games): 91.5% offensive snaps, 29.5 attempts/game, 68% completions, 8.1 yards/attempt, 238.5 passing yards/game, 19 TD to 8 INT, 3.5 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 19 thrown vs 20.1 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.7 · median 14.7 · ceiling 21.7 — 78% chance of 10+, 49% of 15+, 18% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Daniel Jones in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ KC | Sun, Sep 20 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 32nd · tough |
| W3 | vs HOU | Sun, Sep 27 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 2nd · soft |
| W4 | @ WAS | Sun, Oct 4 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 8th · soft |
| W5 | @ PIT | Sun, Oct 11 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 30th · tough |
| W6 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 18 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 29th · tough |
| W7 | @ MIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 11th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | BAL | 19/31, 166 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 4 yd | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |