IND — Week 9 vs DAL, who allow the 6th-most points to QBs — recently Tanner McKee put up 11.5 on them (W7), Gardner Minshew II put up 19.5 on them (W8).
8.5 PPR points against JAX on 19/28, 144 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 7 yd — missed his 11.6 projection by 3.1. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Daniel Jones projects 15.0 PPR points in week 9 vs DAL — the 6th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 9.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs DAL: 244.1 passing yards a game allowed (7.45/attempt) · 1.9 passing TDs/gm · 1.9 sacks and 0.4 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 28.9 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how DAL defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 206.5 passing yards · 1.39 passing TDs · 8.5 rushing yards · 16% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 97.4% offensive snaps · 33.5 attempts/game, 60.4% completions, 5.8 yards/attempt, 192.8 passing yards/game, 5 TD to 9 INT · 3.1 carries/game. 2025 baseline (13 games): 91.5% offensive snaps, 29.5 attempts/game, 68% completions, 8.1 yards/attempt, 238.5 passing yards/game, 19 TD to 8 INT, 3.5 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 5 thrown vs 9 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 6.1 · median 14.8 · ceiling 23.3 — 76% chance of 10+, 50% of 15+, 24% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Daniel Jones in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs DAL | Sun, Nov 8 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 6th · soft |
| W10 | vs MIA | Sun, Nov 15 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 3rd · soft |
| W11 | @ HOU | Thu, Nov 19 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 12th |
| W12 | vs NYG | Sun, Nov 29 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 7th · soft |
| W14 | @ PHI | Sun, Dec 13 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 10th |
| W15 | @ TEN | Sun, Dec 20 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 9th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | JAX | 19/28, 144 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 7 yd | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| W7 | MIN | 13/22, 108 pass yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 13 yd | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| W6 | TEN | 22/42, 269 pass yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 30 yd | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| W5 | PIT | 24/44, 267 pass yd · 3 car, 4 yd | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| W4 | WAS | 19/34, 143 pass yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 2 yd, 1 TD · 1 fum | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| W3 | HOU | 24/36, 235 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 5 yd · 2 fum | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| W2 | KC | 22/31, 210 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 10 yd | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| W1 | BAL | 19/31, 166 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 4 yd | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |