CAR — Week 1 vs CHI, who allow the 18th-most points to TEs — recently Jake Tonges put up 12 on them (W17), Anthony Firkser put up 0.2 on them (W18).
Darren Waller projects 8.0 PPR points in week 1 vs CHI — the 18th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 11.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs CHI: 239.2 passing yards a game allowed (7.63/attempt) · 1.9 TDs/gm through the air · 1.4 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 18th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how CHI defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 19% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 45% offensive snaps · 14.6% target share · 22.1% air-yard share (aDOT 10.6). TD luck: 6 scored vs 3.4 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 1 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.9 · median 5.3 · ceiling 13.7 — 17% chance of 10+, 7% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Darren Waller in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs CHI | Sun, Sep 13 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 18th |
| W2 | @ ATL | Sun, Sep 20 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 27th · tough |
| W3 | @ CLE | Sun, Sep 27 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 23rd |
| W4 | vs DET | Sun, Oct 4 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 15th |
| W6 | @ PHI | Sun, Oct 18 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 32nd · tough |
| W7 | vs TB | Sun, Oct 25 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 7th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W16 | CIN | 3/5 rec, 40 yd | 4.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| W15 | PIT | 7/8 rec, 66 yd, 2 TD | 18.6 | 22.1 | 25.6 |
| W14 | NYJ | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/3 rec, 13 yd | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| W13 | NO | 2/3 rec, 47 yd | 4.7 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| W6 | LAC | 2/3 rec, 12 yd, 1 TD | 7.2 | 8.2 | 9.2 |
| W5 | CAR | 5/5 rec, 78 yd, 1 TD | 13.8 | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| W4 | NYJ | 3/4 rec, 27 yd, 2 TD | 14.7 | 16.2 | 17.7 |