Dawson Knox TE

BUF — Week 9 at MIN, who allow the 32nd-most points to TEs — recently Drew Ogletree put up 1.2 on them (W7), Sam LaPorta put up 3.5 on them (W8).

Week 8 recap: Dawson Knox

1.6 PPR points against BAL on 1/2 rec, 6 yd — right on his 3.2 projection (-1.6). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.

Should you start Dawson Knox this week?

Dawson Knox projects 2.8 PPR points in week 9 at MIN — the 32nd-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 2.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.

The week 9 angle vs MIN: 180.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.21/attempt) · 0.6 TDs/gm through the air · 1.1 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIN defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.

↑ Trending up

→ snaps/gm 46.5 → 46 (-1%) · ↑ target share % 6.8 → 8.2 (+17%)

Week 8 vs BAL: 1.6 pts · 2 tgt · 57 snaps

Trend reads volume — snaps, targets and carries — not fantasy points, which swing on touchdowns.

Week 9 proj

2.8

PPR · 1.7 std

Matchup

32nd

MIN vs TEs

Form

2.2

PPR pts/gm, last 3 played

What Vegas expects (week 9): 12.5 receiving yards · 13% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.

Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 69% offensive snaps · 1.7 targets/game, 6.8% target share · 3.9% air-yard share (aDOT 4) · 1.3 catches for 6 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 58.3% offensive snaps, 3.1 targets/game, 11% target share, 12.3% air-yard share (aDOT 6.7), 2.3 catches for 26.1 yards/game, 4 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.6 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.

Compare Dawson Knox in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer

Upcoming schedule & projections

Wk	Opp		Std	½ PPR	PPR	Matchup
W9	@ MIN	Mon, Nov 9	1.7	2.2	2.8	32nd · tough
W10	@ NYJ	Sun, Nov 15	2.0	2.6	3.2	18th
W11	vs MIA	Sun, Nov 22	2.2	2.9	3.5	3rd · soft
W12	vs KC	Thu, Nov 26	1.8	2.4	3.0	6th · soft
W13	@ NE	Sun, Dec 6	1.9	2.5	3.1	24th
W14	@ GB	Sun, Dec 13	2.0	2.6	3.2	31st · tough

The matchup

How MIN defends TEs →

Game log

Wk	Opp		Std	½ PPR	PPR
W8	BAL	1/2 rec, 6 yd	0.6	1.1	1.6
W5	LAR	1/3 rec, 6 yd	0.6	1.1	1.6
W4	NE	2/2 rec, 13 yd	1.3	2.3	3.3
W3	LAC	1 car, 0 yd · 1/1 rec, 5 yd	0.5	1.0	1.5
W2	DET	2/2 rec, 5 yd, 1 TD	6.5	7.5	8.5
W1	HOU	1/1 rec, 7 yd	0.7	1.2	1.7

All numbers are the 2026 season, refreshed nightly. Matchup ranks read 1–32, where 1st allows the most points to the position — the matchup you want.