BUF — Week 2 vs DET, who allow the 2nd-most points to TEs — recently Juwan Johnson put up 11.4 on them (W1).
1.7 PPR points against HOU on 1/1 rec, 7 yd — missed his 4.9 projection by 3.2. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Dawson Knox projects 4.3 PPR points in week 2 vs DET — the 2nd-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 1.7 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DET: 410 passing yards a game allowed (7.32/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 2 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 2nd-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how DET defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 71.5% offensive snaps · 1.5 targets/game, 5.4% target share · 0.9% air-yard share (aDOT 1.7) · 1.5 catches for 6 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (16 games): 58.3% offensive snaps, 3.1 targets/game, 11% target share, 12.3% air-yard share (aDOT 6.7), 2.3 catches for 26.1 yards/game, 4 TD. (2025) TD luck: 4 scored vs 4.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.7 · median 2.9 · ceiling 7.7 — 5% chance of 10+, 0% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Dawson Knox in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs DET | Thu, Sep 17 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2nd · soft |
| W3 | vs LAC | Sun, Sep 27 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 5th · soft |
| W4 | vs NE | Sun, Oct 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 30th · tough |
| W5 | @ LAR | Mon, Oct 12 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 26th · tough |
| W6 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 18 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 29th · tough |
| W8 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 1 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 17th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | HOU | 1/1 rec, 7 yd | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |