MIN · Questionable — Toe — Week 3 at TB, who allow the 21st-most points to RBs — recently Chase Brown put up 13.8 on them (W1), Quinshon Judkins put up 4.8 on them (W2).
3.0 PPR points against CHI on 2 car, 8 yd · 1/1 rec, 12 yd. The week 3 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
DeeJay Dallas projects 3.9 PPR points in week 3 at TB — the 21st-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 2.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 3 angle vs TB: 75 rushing yards a game allowed at 3 a carry · 0.5 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 21st-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how TB defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 3): 16% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 12% offensive snaps · 1 carries/game (3.2% of team carries) · 7.1% of the backfield's touches · 1 targets/game, 4.8% target share · 4 rushing and 6.5 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. 2025 baseline (5 games): 6.2% offensive snaps, 0.6 carries/game (2% of team carries), 2.9% of the backfield's touches, 0.2 targets/game, 0.5% target share, 4.2 rushing and 0 receiving yards/game, 0 TD. (2025) TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 3 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 0.4 · median 2.3 · ceiling 7.9 — 5% chance of 10+, 1% of 15+, 0% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare DeeJay Dallas in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W3 | @ TB | Sun, Sep 27 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 21st |
| W4 | vs MIA | Sun, Oct 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3rd · soft |
| W5 | @ NO | Sun, Oct 11 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 6th · soft |
| W7 | vs IND | Sun, Oct 25 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2nd · soft |
| W8 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 12th |
| W9 | vs BUF | Mon, Nov 9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | CHI | 2 car, 8 yd · 1/1 rec, 12 yd | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| W1 | GB | 1/1 rec, 1 yd | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.1 |