BAL — Week 2 vs NO, who allow the 5th-most points to RBs — recently Jahmyr Gibbs put up 28.6 on them (W1).
35.3 PPR points against IND on 24 car, 144 yd, 3 TD · 1/1 rec, 19 yd — beat his 15.7 projection by 19.6. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Derrick Henry projects 15.2 PPR points in week 2 vs NO — the 5th-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 35.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs NO: 165 rushing yards a game allowed at 5 a carry · 2 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how NO defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 54% offensive snaps · 20 carries/game (67.8% of team carries) · 80% of the backfield's touches · 2 targets/game, 7.3% target share · 106 rushing and 19 receiving yards/game, 4 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 54.5% offensive snaps, 18.1 carries/game (60.6% of team carries), 70.5% of the backfield's touches, 1.2 targets/game, 4.9% target share, 93.8 rushing and 8.8 receiving yards/game, 16 TD. (2025) TD luck: 16 scored vs 15.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 7.2 · median 13.8 · ceiling 24 — 69% chance of 10+, 43% of 15+, 20% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Derrick Henry in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs NO | Sun, Sep 20 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 5th · soft |
| W3 | @ DAL | Sun, Sep 27 | 15.7 | 16.4 | 17.1 | 9th |
| W4 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 15.4 | 16.0 | 16.7 | 12th |
| W5 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 11 | 13.9 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 29th · tough |
| W6 | @ CLE | Sun, Oct 18 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 21st |
| W7 | vs CIN | Sun, Oct 25 | 15.9 | 16.5 | 17.1 | 20th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | IND | 24 car, 144 yd, 3 TD · 1/1 rec, 19 yd | 34.3 | 34.8 | 35.3 |