BAL — Week 9 vs JAX, who allow the 32nd-most points to RBs — recently Jawhar Jordan put up 11 on them (W6), DJ Giddens put up 4.3 on them (W8).
14.0 PPR points against BUF on 11 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 7 yd — right on his 16.1 projection (-2.1). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Derrick Henry projects 11.7 PPR points in week 9 vs JAX — the 32nd-ranked matchup for RBs, averaging 8.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at RB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs JAX: 77.4 rushing yards a game allowed at 3.39 a carry · 0.6 rushing TDs/gm — all of it adding up to the 32nd-most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Receipts and the full profile: how JAX defends RBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 71.5 rushing yards · 6.5 receiving yards · 42% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 55.6% offensive snaps · 19.8 carries/game (68.4% of team carries) · 75.8% of the backfield's touches · 1.8 targets/game, 6.2% target share · 79 rushing and 9.4 receiving yards/game, 9 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 54.5% offensive snaps, 18.1 carries/game (60.6% of team carries), 70.5% of the backfield's touches, 1.2 targets/game, 4.9% target share, 93.8 rushing and 8.8 receiving yards/game, 16 TD. (2026) TD luck: 9 scored vs 9.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.8 · median 9.5 · ceiling 20.6 — 48% chance of 10+, 24% of 15+, 11% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Derrick Henry in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs JAX | Thu, Nov 5 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 32nd · tough |
| W10 | vs LAC | Mon, Nov 16 | 14.9 | 15.7 | 16.4 | 9th |
| W11 | @ CAR | Sun, Nov 22 | 16.3 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 2nd · soft |
| W12 | @ HOU | Sun, Nov 29 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 14th |
| W14 | vs TB | Sun, Dec 13 | 13.6 | 14.3 | 15.0 | 31st · tough |
| W15 | @ PIT | Sun, Dec 20 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 27th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | BUF | 11 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 7 yd | 12.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| W7 | CIN | 17 car, 45 yd · 1/2 rec, 4 yd | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.9 |
| W6 | CLE | 17 car, 58 yd · 1/1 rec, 2 yd · 1 fum | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| W5 | ATL | 24 car, 102 yd · 1/2 rec, 18 yd, 1 TD | 20.0 | 20.5 | 21.0 |
| W4 | TEN | 23 car, 73 yd, 1 TD · 2/2 rec, 6 yd | 13.9 | 14.9 | 15.9 |
| W3 | DAL | 26 car, 89 yd, 2 TD · 1/1 rec, 0 yd | 20.9 | 21.4 | 21.9 |
| W2 | NO | 16 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 3/3 rec, 19 yd | 14.7 | 16.2 | 17.7 |
| W1 | IND | 24 car, 144 yd, 3 TD · 1/1 rec, 19 yd | 34.3 | 34.8 | 35.3 |