PHI · Questionable — Hamstring — Week 9 vs NYG, who allow the 17th-most points to WRs — recently Chris Olave put up 10.3 on them (W6), Xavier Hutchinson put up 8.9 on them (W7).
DeVonta Smith projects 12.3 PPR points in week 9 vs NYG — the 17th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 20.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs NYG: 192.1 passing yards a game allowed (6.14/attempt) · 2 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 17th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how NYG defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 32% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 4 games): 87.3% offensive snaps · 10.3 targets/game, 32.3% target share · 46.4% air-yard share (aDOT 12.2) · 6.5 catches for 77.5 yards/game, 2 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 84.4% offensive snaps, 6.6 targets/game, 24.6% target share, 32.1% air-yard share (aDOT 12), 4.5 catches for 59.3 yards/game, 4 TD. (2026) TD luck: 2 scored vs 1.7 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.5 · median 8.5 · ceiling 18.4 — 43% chance of 10+, 21% of 15+, 8% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare DeVonta Smith in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs NYG | Sun, Nov 8 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 17th |
| W11 | vs PIT | Sun, Nov 22 | 8.2 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 28th · tough |
| W12 | @ DAL | Thu, Nov 26 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 13.4 | 5th · soft |
| W13 | @ ARI | Sun, Dec 6 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 6th · soft |
| W14 | vs IND | Sun, Dec 13 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 23rd |
| W15 | vs SEA | Sat, Dec 19 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 32nd · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W6 | CAR | 7/14 rec, 75 yd, 1 TD | 13.5 | 17.0 | 20.5 |
| W3 | CHI | 6/8 rec, 65 yd | 6.5 | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| W2 | TEN | 10/13 rec, 117 yd, 1 TD | 17.7 | 22.7 | 27.7 |
| W1 | WAS | 3/6 rec, 53 yd | 5.3 | 6.8 | 8.3 |