BUF · Out — Shoulder — Week 2 vs DET, who allow the 3rd-most points to WRs — recently Chris Olave put up 18.2 on them (W1).
21.0 PPR points against HOU on 5/8 rec, 100 yd, 1 TD — beat his 12.1 projection by 8.9. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
DJ Moore projects 13.1 PPR points in week 2 vs DET — the 3rd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 21 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs DET: 410 passing yards a game allowed (7.32/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 2 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 3rd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how DET defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 53.5% offensive snaps · 4 targets/game, 14.3% target share · 20.6% air-yard share (aDOT 19.8) · 2.5 catches for 50 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (17 games): 84.8% offensive snaps, 5 targets/game, 16.1% target share, 19.9% air-yard share (aDOT 11.6), 2.9 catches for 40.1 yards/game, 7 TD. (2025) TD luck: 7 scored vs 7.5 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 2.1 · median 9.2 · ceiling 21.9 — 46% chance of 10+, 27% of 15+, 13% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare DJ Moore in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs DET | Thu, Sep 17 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 3rd · soft |
| W3 | vs LAC | Sun, Sep 27 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 19th |
| W4 | vs NE | Sun, Oct 4 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 13th |
| W5 | @ LAR | Mon, Oct 12 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 4th · soft |
| W6 | @ LV | Sun, Oct 18 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 20th |
| W8 | vs BAL | Sun, Nov 1 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 24th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | HOU | 5/8 rec, 100 yd, 1 TD | 16.0 | 18.5 | 21.0 |