CIN — Week 1 vs TB, who allow the 7th-most points to TEs — recently Greg Dulcich put up 11.1 on them (W17), Tommy Tremble put up 9.8 on them (W18).
Drew Sample projects 2.1 PPR points in week 1 vs TB — the 7th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 3.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs TB: 254.8 passing yards a game allowed (7.63/attempt) · 1.8 TDs/gm through the air · 0.8 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 7th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how TB defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 6.5 receiving yards · 9% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 53.6% offensive snaps · 4.9% target share · 0.1% air-yard share (aDOT -0.3). TD luck: 1 scored vs 0.4 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Drew Sample in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs TB | Sun, Sep 13 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 7th · soft |
| W2 | @ HOU | Sun, Sep 20 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 20th |
| W3 | @ PIT | Sun, Sep 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 4th · soft |
| W4 | vs JAX | Sun, Oct 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 10th |
| W5 | @ MIA | Sun, Oct 11 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 6th · soft |
| W7 | @ BAL | Sun, Oct 25 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 29th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W18 | CLE | 3/3 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| W17 | ARI | 1/1 rec, 8 yd | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| W16 | MIA | 2/2 rec, 31 yd | 3.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| W15 | BAL | 2/2 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| W13 | BAL | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/2 rec, 14 yd | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| W6 | GB | 1/2 rec, -2 yd | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| W5 | DET | 1/1 rec, -1 yd | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| W3 | MIN | 2/3 rec, 20 yd, 1 TD | 8.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| W2 | JAX | 1/2 rec, 7 yd | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |