BAL — Week 1 at IND, who allow the 8th-most points to TEs — recently Brenton Strange put up 5.4 on them (W17), Dalton Schultz put up 7.3 on them (W18).
Durham Smythe projects 0.9 PPR points in week 1 at IND — the 8th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 1.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs IND: 262.5 passing yards a game allowed (7.12/attempt) · 1.4 TDs/gm through the air · 0.8 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 8th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how IND defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 9% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 25.4% offensive snaps · 2.9% target share · 0.9% air-yard share (aDOT 4). TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Durham Smythe in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | @ IND | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 8th · soft |
| W2 | vs NO | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 19th |
| W3 | @ DAL | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 21st |
| W4 | vs TEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 11th |
| W5 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 27th · tough |
| W6 | @ CLE | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 23rd |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W17 | SF | 1/1 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| W14 | GB | 1/1 rec, 2 yd | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| W12 | PIT | 1/1 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W11 | MIN | 1/3 rec, 8 yd | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |