NE — Week 8 at MIA, who allow the 30th-most points to WRs — recently Ja'Marr Chase put up 13.7 on them (W5), Omar Cooper Jr. put up 17.5 on them (W7).
2.6 PPR points against CHI on 1/1 rec, 16 yd — right on his 5.3 projection (-2.7). The week 8 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Efton Chism III projects 6.7 PPR points in week 8 at MIA — the 30th-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 8.6 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 8 angle vs MIA: 236.2 passing yards a game allowed (8.1/attempt) · 2.3 TDs/gm through the air · 0.7 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 30th-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 8): 15.5 receiving yards · 20% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 6 games): 48.2% offensive snaps · 2.5 targets/game, 8.1% target share · 6% air-yard share (aDOT 8) · 1.7 catches for 19 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (8 games): 17.9% offensive snaps, 0.4 targets/game, 1.6% target share, 1.8% air-yard share (aDOT 11.7), 0.4 catches for 9.4 yards/game, 1 TD. (2026) TD luck: 1 scored vs 1.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 8 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 1.2 · median 4.3 · ceiling 11.9 — 16% chance of 10+, 5% of 15+, 1% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Efton Chism III in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 30th · tough |
| W9 | vs GB | Sun, Nov 8 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 12th |
| W10 | @ DET | Sun, Nov 15 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4th · soft |
| W12 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 29 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 20th |
| W13 | vs BUF | Sun, Dec 6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1st · soft |
| W14 | vs MIN | Thu, Dec 10 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 29th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | CHI | 1/1 rec, 16 yd | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| W5 | LV | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/6 rec, 57 yd | 5.9 | 8.4 | 10.9 |
| W4 | BUF | 2/4 rec, 42 yd, 1 TD | 10.2 | 11.2 | 12.2 |
| W3 | JAX | 1/1, 16 pass yd · 1/2 rec, 1 yd | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| W2 | PIT | 1/1 rec, -2 yd | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 |