ARI — Week 9 at SEA, who allow the 31st-most points to QBs — recently Patrick Mahomes put up 7 on them (W7), Caleb Williams put up 14 on them (W8).
19.5 PPR points against DAL on 17/23, 188 pass yd, 3 TD. The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Gardner Minshew II projects 10.6 PPR points in week 9 at SEA — the 31st-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 19.5 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs SEA: 169.1 passing yards a game allowed (5.48/attempt) · 1.1 passing TDs/gm · 2.3 sacks and 1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 16 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 31st-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how SEA defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 8% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.1 · median 10 · ceiling 19.4 — 50% chance of 10+, 24% of 15+, 9% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Gardner Minshew II in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ SEA | Sun, Nov 8 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 31st · tough |
| W10 | vs LAR | Sun, Nov 15 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 20th |
| W11 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 22 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 28th · tough |
| W12 | vs WAS | Sun, Nov 29 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 4th · soft |
| W13 | vs PHI | Sun, Dec 6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 10th |
| W15 | vs NYJ | Sun, Dec 20 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 16th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | DAL | 17/23, 188 pass yd, 3 TD | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |