NYJ · Questionable — Concussion — Week 9 at KC, who allow the 31st-most points to WRs — recently Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up 22.3 on them (W7), Jaylen Waddle put up 11.9 on them (W8).
14.3 PPR points against LV on 6/12 rec, 83 yd — right on his 16.9 projection (-2.6). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Garrett Wilson projects 14.2 PPR points in week 9 at KC — the 31st-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 9.1 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs KC: 228.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.55/attempt) · 1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 31st-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 59.5 receiving yards · 27% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 89.3% offensive snaps · 7.9 targets/game, 27.5% target share · 34.9% air-yard share (aDOT 10.4) · 5.4 catches for 65.9 yards/game, 3 TD. 2025 baseline (7 games): 87% offensive snaps, 8.4 targets/game, 35.4% target share, 56.3% air-yard share (aDOT 9.1), 5.1 catches for 56.4 yards/game, 4 TD. (2026) TD luck: 3 scored vs 3.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4.8 · median 10.5 · ceiling 19.9 — 52% chance of 10+, 29% of 15+, 10% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Garrett Wilson in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 8 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 31st · tough |
| W10 | vs BUF | Sun, Nov 15 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 15.1 | 3rd · soft |
| W11 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 22 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 15.9 | 18th |
| W12 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 29 | 11.4 | 14.6 | 17.7 | 29th · tough |
| W14 | vs DEN | Sun, Dec 13 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 14.3 | 27th · tough |
| W15 | @ ARI | Sun, Dec 20 | 11.3 | 14.2 | 17.1 | 6th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | LV | 6/12 rec, 83 yd | 8.3 | 11.3 | 14.3 |
| W7 | MIA | 2/3 rec, 26 yd | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| W6 | NE | 4/6 rec, 44 yd | 4.4 | 6.4 | 8.4 |
| W5 | CLE | 7/11 rec, 104 yd, 1 TD | 16.4 | 19.9 | 23.4 |
| W4 | CHI | 3/4 rec, 27 yd | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| W3 | DET | 10/13 rec, 107 yd, 1 TD | 16.7 | 21.7 | 26.7 |
| W2 | GB | 5/7 rec, 57 yd, 1 TD | 11.7 | 14.2 | 16.7 |
| W1 | TEN | 6/7 rec, 79 yd | 7.9 | 10.9 | 13.9 |