NYJ — Week 2 vs GB, who allow the 12th-most points to QBs — recently Carson Wentz put up 19.2 on them (W1).
9.3 PPR points against TEN on 19/24, 215 pass yd · 6 car, 7 yd — missed his 14.3 projection by 5. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Geno Smith projects 14.9 PPR points in week 2 vs GB — the 12th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 9.3 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs GB: 151 passing yards a game allowed (6.29/attempt) · 3 passing TDs/gm · 3 sacks and 1 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 8 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 12th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how GB defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 100% offensive snaps · 32.5 attempts/game, 70.8% completions, 7.1 yards/attempt, 231 passing yards/game, 1 TD to 0 INT · 5.5 carries/game. 2025 baseline (15 games): 96.5% offensive snaps, 29.9 attempts/game, 67.4% completions, 6.8 yards/attempt, 201.7 passing yards/game, 19 TD to 17 INT, 2.7 carries/game. (2025) Passing-TD luck: 19 thrown vs 17.2 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 4.7 · median 14.8 · ceiling 23.6 — 75% chance of 10+, 49% of 15+, 22% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Geno Smith in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs GB | Sun, Sep 20 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 12th |
| W3 | @ DET | Sun, Sep 27 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 6th · soft |
| W4 | @ CHI | Sun, Oct 4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 3rd · soft |
| W5 | vs CLE | Sun, Oct 11 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 5th · soft |
| W6 | @ NE | Sun, Oct 18 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 23rd |
| W7 | vs MIA | Sun, Oct 25 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 18th |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | TEN | 19/24, 215 pass yd · 6 car, 7 yd | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |