NYJ — Week 9 at KC, who allow the 28th-most points to QBs — recently Sam Darnold put up 15 on them (W7), Bo Nix put up 19.3 on them (W8).
19.0 PPR points against LV on 20/32, 290 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 4 yd — right on his 17.4 projection (+1.6). The week 9 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
Geno Smith projects 14.6 PPR points in week 9 at KC — the 28th-ranked matchup for QBs, averaging 18.8 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at QB — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs KC: 228.4 passing yards a game allowed (6.55/attempt) · 1 passing TDs/gm · 1.3 sacks and 0.9 INTs/gm · a soft spot for rushing QBs — 16.4 QB rush yds/gm — all of it adding up to the 28th-most fantasy points allowed to QBs. Receipts and the full profile: how KC defends QBs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 213.5 passing yards · 1.22 passing TDs · 5.5 rushing yards · 8% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 8 games): 100% offensive snaps · 29.9 attempts/game, 69% completions, 8 yards/attempt, 239.1 passing yards/game, 12 TD to 3 INT · 2.9 carries/game. 2025 baseline (15 games): 96.5% offensive snaps, 29.9 attempts/game, 67.4% completions, 6.8 yards/attempt, 201.7 passing yards/game, 19 TD to 17 INT, 2.7 carries/game. (2026) Passing-TD luck: 12 thrown vs 9.8 expected. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5.3 · median 14.4 · ceiling 23.2 — 73% chance of 10+, 48% of 15+, 23% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare Geno Smith in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | @ KC | Sun, Nov 8 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 28th · tough |
| W10 | vs BUF | Sun, Nov 15 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 11th |
| W11 | @ LAC | Sun, Nov 22 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 26th · tough |
| W12 | @ MIA | Sun, Nov 29 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 3rd · soft |
| W14 | vs DEN | Sun, Dec 13 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 19th |
| W15 | @ ARI | Sun, Dec 20 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 2nd · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W8 | LV | 20/32, 290 pass yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 4 yd | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| W7 | MIA | 23/30, 287 pass yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 0 yd | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| W6 | NE | 20/30, 252 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| W5 | CLE | 17/30, 182 pass yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 7 yd · 1 fum | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| W4 | CHI | 8/15, 119 pass yd, 1 TD | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| W3 | DET | 31/37, 321 pass yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 12 yd · 1 fum | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| W2 | GB | 27/41, 247 pass yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 17 yd | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.6 |
| W1 | TEN | 19/24, 215 pass yd · 6 car, 7 yd | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 |