SF — Week 2 vs MIA, who allow the 24th-most points to TEs — recently Michael Mayer put up 3.2 on them (W1).
3.2 PPR points against LAR on 2/5 rec, 12 yd — missed his 10.1 projection by 6.9. The week 2 outlook below reflects it — projections, values and form all rebuilt nightly.
George Kittle projects 10.7 PPR points in week 2 vs MIA — the 24th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 3.2 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 2 angle vs MIA: 160 passing yards a game allowed (5.33/attempt) · 3 TDs/gm through the air · 2 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 24th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 2 games): 46% offensive snaps · 4.5 targets/game, 16.9% target share · 26.6% air-yard share (aDOT 9.8) · 3 catches for 46 yards/game, 1 TD. 2025 baseline (11 games): 81.2% offensive snaps, 6.3 targets/game, 21.5% target share, 18.5% air-yard share (aDOT 6.7), 5.2 catches for 57.1 yards/game, 7 TD. (2025) TD luck: 7 scored vs 4.8 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 2 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 3.6 · median 8 · ceiling 14.9 — 34% chance of 10+, 10% of 15+, 2% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare George Kittle in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 20 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 24th |
| W3 | vs ARI | Sun, Sep 27 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 13th |
| W4 | vs DEN | Sun, Oct 4 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 16th |
| W5 | @ SEA | Sun, Oct 11 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 14th |
| W6 | vs WAS | Mon, Oct 19 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 3rd · soft |
| W7 | @ ATL | Sun, Oct 25 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7th · soft |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | LAR | 2/5 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |