SF — Week 9 vs LV, who allow the 4th-most points to TEs — recently Davis Allen put up 14 on them (W7), Kenyon Sadiq put up 2.2 on them (W8).
George Kittle projects 15.2 PPR points in week 9 vs LV — the 4th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 13.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 9 angle vs LV: 250.8 passing yards a game allowed (7.9/attempt) · 2.3 TDs/gm through the air · 0.9 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 4th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how LV defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 9): 68.5 receiving yards · 43% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2026 · 7 games): 77.4% offensive snaps · 6.6 targets/game, 22.4% target share · 21.7% air-yard share (aDOT 7.7) · 4.9 catches for 60.7 yards/game, 5 TD. 2025 baseline (11 games): 81.2% offensive snaps, 6.3 targets/game, 21.5% target share, 18.5% air-yard share (aDOT 6.7), 5.2 catches for 57.1 yards/game, 7 TD. (2026) TD luck: 5 scored vs 4.2 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Week 9 range (half-PPR, when he plays): floor 5 · median 11.3 · ceiling 22.1 — 58% chance of 10+, 33% of 15+, 16% of 20+. Built from real week-to-week variance at his position and scoring level — not a bell curve, the actual shape.
Compare George Kittle in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
Headlines link to their publishers — reported elsewhere, collected here. Our rankings never move on a headline.
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W9 | vs LV | Sun, Nov 8 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 15.2 | 4th · soft |
| W10 | @ DAL | Sun, Nov 15 | 11.5 | 14.3 | 17.0 | 19th |
| W11 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 22 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 14.7 | 32nd · tough |
| W12 | vs SEA | Sun, Nov 29 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 15.1 | 30th · tough |
| W13 | @ NYG | Sun, Dec 6 | 10.8 | 13.4 | 16.0 | 22nd |
| W14 | vs LAR | Sun, Dec 13 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 15.0 | 27th · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W7 | ATL | 8/10 rec, 88 yd · 1 fum | 6.8 | 10.8 | 14.8 |
| W6 | WAS | 5/8 rec, 69 yd, 1 TD | 12.9 | 15.4 | 17.9 |
| W5 | SEA | 5/6 rec, 24 yd | 2.4 | 4.9 | 7.4 |
| W4 | DEN | 4/6 rec, 70 yd, 1 TD | 13.0 | 15.0 | 17.0 |
| W3 | ARI | 6/7 rec, 82 yd, 2 TD | 20.2 | 23.2 | 26.2 |
| W2 | MIA | 4/4 rec, 80 yd, 1 TD | 14.0 | 16.0 | 18.0 |
| W1 | LAR | 2/5 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |