DET — Week 2 at BUF, who allow the 23rd-most points to WRs — recently A.J. Brown put up 6.8 on them (W17), Isaiah Williams put up 2.4 on them (W18).
Greg Dortch projects 3.1 PPR points in week 2 at BUF — the 23rd-ranked matchup for WRs, averaging 12.9 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at WR — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs BUF: 170.2 passing yards a game allowed (6.25/attempt) · 1.1 TDs/gm through the air · 0.8 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 23rd-most fantasy points allowed to WRs. Receipts and the full profile: how BUF defends WRs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 13% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 33.6% offensive snaps · 6.8% target share · 1.2% air-yard share (aDOT 1.8). TD luck: 4 scored vs 1.6 expected — over expectation, regression risk. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Greg Dortch in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W2 | @ BUF | Thu, Sep 17 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 23rd |
| W3 | vs NYJ | Sun, Sep 27 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 15th |
| W4 | @ CAR | Sun, Oct 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 25th · tough |
| W5 | @ ARI | Sun, Oct 11 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 19th |
| W7 | vs GB | Sun, Oct 25 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 14th |
| W8 | vs MIN | Sun, Nov 1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 32nd · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W13 | TB | 2/2 rec, 14 yd | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.4 |
| W12 | JAX | 2 car, -5 yd · 6/9 rec, 53 yd, 1 TD | 10.8 | 13.8 | 16.8 |
| W11 | SF | 6/6 rec, 66 yd, 1 TD | 12.6 | 15.6 | 18.6 |
| W10 | SEA | 2 car, 2 yd, 1 TD | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| W9 | DAL | 1 car, 9 yd | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| W7 | GB | 2/2 rec, 5 yd | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| W6 | IND | 3/3 rec, 9 yd, 1 TD | 6.9 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| W5 | TEN | 2/2 rec, 12 yd | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| W4 | SEA | 1 car, 4 yd · 4/5 rec, 35 yd | 3.9 | 5.9 | 7.9 |
| W3 | SF | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/2 rec, 3 yd | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| W2 | CAR | 1/1 rec, 11 yd | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| W1 | NO | 1/1 rec, -2 yd | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 |