LV — Week 1 vs MIA, who allow the 6th-most points to TEs — recently Cade Otton put up 3.3 on them (W17), Hunter Henry put up 5.6 on them (W18).
Ian Thomas projects 0.3 PPR points in week 1 vs MIA — the 6th-ranked matchup for TEs, averaging 4.4 over his last three. Start him if that clears your other options at TE — run the exact head-to-head in Start/Sit below, or jump straight to a comparison.
The week 1 angle vs MIA: 230.6 passing yards a game allowed (7.61/attempt) · 1.7 TDs/gm through the air · 0.6 INTs/gm — all of it adding up to the 6th-most fantasy points allowed to TEs. Receipts and the full profile: how MIA defends TEs, linked under The matchup below.
What Vegas expects (week 1): 5% anytime-TD — de-vigged sportsbook consensus, shown for information; we take no bets.
Usage & TD luck (2025): 35.9% offensive snaps · 4.3% target share · 2.4% air-yard share (aDOT 3.2). TD luck: 0 scored vs 0.1 expected — neutral. Usage moves before production — snaps and share shifts are the earliest real signal.
Compare Ian Thomas in Start/Sit Try in the Trade Analyzer
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | vs MIA | Sun, Sep 13 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 6th · soft |
| W2 | @ LAC | Sun, Sep 20 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 26th · tough |
| W3 | @ NO | Sun, Sep 27 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 19th |
| W4 | vs KC | Sun, Oct 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 28th · tough |
| W5 | @ NE | Sun, Oct 11 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 13th |
| W6 | vs BUF | Sun, Oct 18 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 31st · tough |
| Wk | Opp | Std | ½ PPR | PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W14 | DEN | 2/2 rec, 17 yd | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| W13 | LAC | 1/1 rec, 8 yd | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| W12 | CLE | 4/4 rec, 36 yd | 3.6 | 5.6 | 7.6 |
| W11 | DAL | 1/1 rec, 20 yd | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| W9 | JAX | 1/1 rec, 9 yd | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| W6 | TEN | 1/1 rec, 4 yd | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| W5 | IND | 3/3 rec, 20 yd | 2.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 |